((The thing is, I cannot get it that market is so wary of something I am so confident in. Narcissism ? ;-) ))
LOL! I suppose there's a fine line between being a lunatic and a visionary. Hopefully, we're all in the later category. :)
Having been investing in the stock markets for about 20 years now, I can't tell you how many companies I've invested in that had enormous potential, only to flounder on the rocks because of (a) poor business strategy, (b) lack of anticipated market demand, (c) a failure to execute, (d) inability to create a sustainble, competitive advantage, (e) over-reliance on a few key customers who went bankrupt, (f) adverse commodity price fluctuations, (g) etc. etc. Most of these companies at one point had analysts who produced glowing reports suggesting fair value for their share price at multiples higher than the current price.
All this to say that a LOT of things can go wrong as a company executes its business strategy - and the farther into the future the realization of consistent, predictable revenue and earnings, the greater the risk that such revenue and earnings do not materialize.
OTOH, Orbite DOES IMO have enormous potential - it owns proprietary, platform technology that has several potential high-value applications, it has a phenomenal deposit in the Gaspe, it has what appears to be a low-cost structure in its various business units, and it appears to have a culture that is both customer-driven and has shown operating excellence and an ability to execute. Furthermore, in RUSAL and Nalco, it has attracted world-class strategic partners, albeit still at the MOU stage.
Mr. Market, IMO, prices stocks to reflect the ongoing "war" between investors who see future potential, and are willing to invest in that potential; and those investors who feel the business risk is not sufficiently priced into the stock. Of course, there are manipulators and day-traders that can skew the price as well, but in the long run, if they don't destroy the business, they should not be the primary arbiter of share price. In the end, the arbiter of this epic battle will be the company's ability to generate consistent, predictable revenues and earnings that provide an adequate return on equity/invested capital.
For myself, I see enormous potential in Orbite. But it's an unpredictable world. And I have this ongoing battle of hope and fear that constantly wage a battle for my soul. I don't think I'll feel truly confident until Orbite starts generating significant revenue/profits from its operations - which hopefully will happen within the year.
Perhaps I am overly risk-averse. Oh well, I guess that's what makes a market.