Shorting a safe bet?   Hahaha! - Shorting while your friends will cover their hass?!  Funny.

 

Everything in your list is listed and scheduled in the Corporate Presentation. 

 

HPA Plant is being commissioned as expected and will be producing alumina - maybe this weekend.  Maybe that's why you are doing overtime tonight, your bosses are getting a little worried?

 

Plus, there is a lot of material to increase Orbite intrinsic value:

  • 20% Opex reduction from PEA - directly more EBITA
  • Increased REE/RM extraction rates
  • Production of HP-silica for both HPA and SGA Plants = significant revenue increase
  • Orbite very well accepted by their peers in Brazil
  • Additional resource to come in from drilling campaign in Quebec (9 times more land than Grande-Vallée)
  • New possibilities in Nova-Scotia - higher alumina content raw material; even lower production costs. New resource.
  • Etc.

 

Alumina1

 

 

Well, shorting Orbite appears to be a pretty safe bet.

Richard Boudreault has not delivered the Christmas present.

  • SGA feasibility not completed.  -

  • HPA plant not started up.

  • RUSAL contract not signed.

  • NALCO contract not signed.

  • Joel Fournier (CTO) left company before commissioning of his baby.

  • Patent applications imho somewhat lacking (look at international search reports!)

  • Technology proven? (Some say, yes. I feel no.)

So no material increase in the intrinsic value to be expected anytime soon.
Share price somewhat inflated (when looking at value of assets or P/E).

DayOf Reckoning made a valid point, highlighting that they are trading at 5 times expected(!) future earnings while profitability has yet to be proven.

So, why not sh-ORT?