Here is updated Short Interest info based on the latest data for both OTCQX and TSX (Dec. 15, 2012):
2- Table to evaluate average short selling price:
1- Shorts are getting a little shy now ("only" 57k increase Vs close to 1M during the previous 15 days period). Overall (Total Canadian + US Short positions) is flattening. Approx. 450k short positions covered on the TSX offset by 508k increase on OTCQX/EORBF, with a net slight increase. Interesting to see the short Interests coming here to say the stock is not good on one hand, but covering on the other hand...
2- Shorts have very good reasons to be nervous because they are highly exposed to a Short Squeeze, especially with the coming production of alumina with the new HPA Plant being commissioned in Cap Chat. Alumina production with new HPA Plant system is imminent.
3- And this is a MAJOR step since the validation of HPA Plant, is also also validation of SGA (since SGA Plant will mostly consist of multiple HPA lines, without the supplementary steps to achieve higher grades), and confirmation that the huge Orbite resources can actually be extracted to get significant value over the next 100 years+.
4- Short Interests have tried very hard to cap share price at the high cost of increasing their risks, and so close to HPA Plant commissioning, start-up, and cash generation. Actually, since CTO - during which period Shorts thought they would make easy money on a Company being audited - Short Interests have been caught pants down (UC Rusal MOU, constant and positive developments since then) and never had the right conditions (i.e. sell-off) to fully cover in the money and all they could do was to keep shorting and hoping to get an occasion or try create one (e.g. Hykawy's ridiculous target price). Now, they simply have to stop denying their own failure, write-off their losses and turn long.
5- Despite their intense and sustained shorting (short positions increased by 51% since Sept. 20 - peak at 3.93) , the Short Interests were not able to trigger favorable conditions (sell-off) to cover their large position. This Company is too strong to be sent to their wished/desired 0.90$ "price target". See more credible (yet very conservative) price target and opinions from several analysts and experts:
6- The share price can come back above the average short selling price in no time. Shorts will be back in the losing mode as soon as the share price is above approx.$ 2.64-2.65. Above that, they will be losing approx. $120,000 for each cent share price increase. This is without considering the undeclared short positions.
7- Expect significant upward correction.
1.55--> 3.93 (with only covering of 178,142 short positions in the 1st 2 weeks of September)
2.40 -->6.09+++ (At least 4.1 M short positions - as of Dec. 15, 2012 - added since peak to get this artificial pressure on SP and capping but also significantly increasing their exposure to SHORT SQUEEZE - imagine what just some covering will trigger).
8- Shorting now is a very risky gamble, so close to a very successful commissioning to be expected from Company's track record.
9- Short Interest Ratio (SIR) is 14 days; significantly above 5 days which is considered high for Short Squeeze potential.
The share price is largely undervalued from their intense and sustained action on investor psychology with shorting and bashing over the last several months. These deceptive methods will be the reason of their own costly failure. Market is very patient, but not stupid.
12.2 M Short Positions + successful HPA Plant production (alumina production) = outnumbered shorts = significant upward correction.
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