... then add revenue for 5N and 6N high-purity alumina that you have underestimated.  Then add high-purity silica (even if coming for example in 2Q2013).   Neglecting gallium, scandium, hematite, mixed oxides and Mg-oxide.  Using 220 M shares.

 

Alumina1

 

 

 

HPA1 Plant - Cap Chat HPA Plant           
               
High-purity alumina             
               
2013              
  ton $/ton Sales        
4N 330 40,000 $13,200,000 30%      
5N 655 100,000 $65,500,000 60%      
6N 115 250,000 $28,750,000 10%      
Total Production 1100   $107,450,000        
      $97,682 per ton      
               
2013              
  TPD days Production Revenue (HP-alumina) Revenue (HP-alumina)    
      (ton)        
Jan 1 31 32 $3,118,980      
Feb 2 28 56 $5,470,182 Q1    
Mar 3 31 93 $9,084,409 $17,673,571    
Apr 3 30 90 $8,791,364      
May 3 31 93 $9,084,409 Q2    
Jun 3 22 66 $6,447,000 $24,322,773    
Jul 3 31 93 $9,084,409      
Aug 3 31 93 $9,084,409 Q3    
Sept 3 30 90 $8,791,364 $26,960,182    
Oct 4 31 124 $12,112,545      
Nov 5 30 150 $14,652,273 Q4    
Dec 5 24 120 $11,721,818 $38,486,636    
    350 1100        
               
HP-Silica              
2013              
  TPD days Production Revenue (HP-silica) Revenue (HP-silica)    
      (ton)        
Jan 2.3 31 71 $2,838,400      
Feb 4.4 28 124 $4,978,089 Q1    
Mar 6.7 31 207 $8,267,183 $16,083,672    
Apr 6.7 30 200 $8,000,500      
May 6.7 31 207 $8,267,183 Q2    
Jun 6.7 22 147 $5,867,033 $22,134,717    
Jul 6.7 31 207 $8,267,183      
Aug 6.7 31 207 $8,267,183 Q3    
Sept 6.7 30 200 $8,000,500 $24,534,867    
Oct 8.9 31 276 $11,022,911      
Nov 11.1 30 333 $13,334,167 Q4    
Dec 11.1 24 267 $10,667,333 $35,024,411    
    350 2444        
               
High-purity alumina            
2014              
  TPD days Production        
      (ton)        
  5 350 1750        
               
2014              
  ton $/ton Sales        
4N 525 40,000  $      21,000,000 30%      
5N 1055 100,000  $   105,500,000 60%      
6N 170 250,000  $      42,500,000 10%      
Total Production 1750    $   169,000,000        
      $96,571 per ton      
               
               
               
High-purity silica (HP Silica)            
Year HPA HP-Silica SGA (ref.)        
  (TPY) (TPY)          
2013 1100 2444 540,000 ton of alumina      
2014 1750 3889 1,200,000 ton of silica      
               
               
2013   ton $/kg Sales      
3N 75% 1833 9.67 $17,728,333      
4N 15% 367 25 $9,166,667      
5N 8% 196 130 $25,422,222      
6N 1.5% 37 550 $20,166,667      
7N 0.5% 12 2070 $25,300,000      
  100% Avg $/kg $40.00 $97,783,889      
               
               
2014   ton $/kg Sales      
3N 75% 2917 9.67 $28,204,167      
4N 15% 583 25 $14,583,333      
5N 8% 311 130 $40,444,444      
6N 1.5% 58 550 $32,083,333      
7N 0.5% 19 2070 $40,250,000      
  100% Avg $/kg $40.00 $155,565,278      
               
               
        Opex   220 M Share
        15% of total sales  
HPA + HP Silica     Sales EBITA EPS P/E Price/Share
  HPA HP Silica HPA + HP Silica        
2013 $107,450,000 $97,783,889 $205,233,889 $174,448,806 $0.79 12 $9.52
2014  $169,000,000 $155,565,278 $324,565,278 $275,880,486 $1.25 12 $15.05
               
               
Summary              
  2013            
  Q1 Q2  Q3  Q4      
HP-alumina $17.7 $24.3 $27.0 $38.5      
HP-silica $16.1 $22.1 $24.5 $35.0      
Total $33.8 $46.5 $51.5 $73.5 $205 M  
               
  2014            
  Q1 Q2  Q3  Q4      
HP-alumina $42.3 $42.3 $42.3 $42.3      
HP-silica $38.9 $38.9 $38.9 $38.9      
Total $81.1 $81.1 $81.1 $81.1 $325 M