((PS Glenn, scary business you outline. My first thought reading your post was: How does unprecedented central bank intervention distort any prognostication.))

 

That's a very good question. The credit cycle that bottomed in 2002 resulted from the collapse in the tech bubble. The credit cycle that bottomed in 2008 resulted from the collapse in the morgtage finance bubble. The current credit cycle is creating the grand-daddy of all bubbles, the sovereign credit bubble. There is absolutely nothing central banks can do ultimately to prevent the spectacular bursting of this bubble - for the very reason that, like previous bubbles, it's effectively a ponzi scheme that corresponds to the very definition of ponzi fiinance (as coined by Hyman Minsky).

 

My personal belief is that the current sovereign credit bubble pops when JP Morgan's interest rate swap book blows sky-high, much like a blow-up in the asset back securitization and credit default swap market blew up the home mortgage finance bubble. My belief is that when the interest swap derivative market blows, this will catch investors completely off-guard by causing a sharp spike in interest rates much like occurred when the bond bubble burst in 1994.

 

One way or another, it will be one for the history books no doubt.

 

Regards,

glenn