I re-iterate my prediction of last Friday.  See below.

 

Shorts have succeeded in putting the Market to sleep at the high price of being overly exposed with their 11M+ short positions.  Market - in appearance-  seems to ignore the very lucrative addition of HP-silica, the 20%+ reduction in operating expenses – the lowest smelter grade alumina worldwide-, the confirmation that many HPA Plants will be built, that Orbite will be The leader in LREE/HREE/RM Clean production, at lowest costs, that it will be already producing gallium and scandium in 2013 (before anybody else outside China), the entry of Orbite in Nova Scotia (very welcome by Nova Scotia) with possible future site for HPA2 /HP-Si and probably SGA2 or 3, HPA1 construction almost complete, ready for commissioning. ETC.

 

But the Market is very well aware of Orbite value (several billion dollars, not just half a billion) and keeps all of these cumulative and very positive News in background.  Some are trying to justify and rationalize the Market reaction so far - but is mainly due to artificial pressure.  The Market is just scared by the volatility amplified by the Shorts and is waiting for some to finally commit and send clear signal to all of the sideliners closely looking at what is happening.    Orbite is poised to lift-off, and it is not just some Shorts wishing and praying that they fail that will prevent the lift-off from happening; all they are doing is delaying that imminent lift-off.  Market wants its share of the success, anticipation will show up.  Even more once the commissioning of HPA1 is started.  Something will trigger that lift-off and it is is coming for sure.

 

Alumina1

 

 

With Asia doing quite good so far today (at least for Japan
 

| posted on 11/16/2012 12:44:20 AM | reads: 258 | overall quality: 4

 

 

With Asia doing quite good so far today (at least for Japan & Hang Seng), aluminum price remaining above 0.86 $/lb, I would say a bold green day, similar to Oct. 31 & Nov. 1st combined together, or again a 2-day (Friday-Monday) combo. Very similar conditions + again excellent news of Wednesday. We should be heading back above 50-day MA (2.76). But Market might decide otherwise...

 

Today's pictures show that Orbite is getting closer and closer to commissioning announcement and first production. Market anticipation should start entering into action, but so far it has been contained by poor conditions and cold shower from shorts.

 

Shorts are amplifying downwards movements but also upward ones (action/reaction...). Yes, they have helped to remove 2 cents on the share price today, but most probably at the very high price of increasing again their short positions and exposure & lowering their average short selling price (increasing their risks). Meanwhile, some big guys are on the accumulating mode.

 

 

Date Open High Low Close Volume Chg % Chg
11/15/2012 2.500 2.520 2.370 2.500 2,225,814 -0.020 -0.79%
11/14/2012 2.670 2.690 2.510 2.520 617,564 -0.110 -4.18%
11/13/2012 2.630 2.660 2.580 2.630 290,495 -0.030 -1.13%
11/12/2012 2.700 2.700 2.630 2.660 334,362 -0.010 -0.37%
11/09/2012 2.630 2.690 2.570 2.670 571,156 0.020 0.75%
11/08/2012 2.700 2.720 2.650 2.650 377,804 -0.010 -0.38%
11/07/2012 2.720 2.730 2.620 2.660 553,274 -0.050 -1.85%
11/06/2012 2.750 2.750 2.700 2.710 422,777 -0.050 -1.81%
11/05/2012 2.700 2.790 2.700 2.760 360,671 0.020 0.73%
11/02/2012 2.810 2.820 2.680 2.740 926,469 -0.110 -3.86%
11/01/2012 2.840 2.930 2.760 2.850 1,866,561 0.110 4.01%
10/31/2012 2.510 2.790 2.500 2.740 2,009,722 0.260 10.48%

 

15-day graph:

ortnov1515days.jpg

 

6-month graph:

ortnov156months-1.jpg

 

 

Fundamentals are strong. Orbite will allow Aluminum companies to do better in tough times with lowering the costs of raw material and transportation.

 

 

Alumina1

 

 

About the Shorts:

Here is updated Short Interest info based the latest data fo
 
| posted on 11/11/2012 2:07:07 PM | reads: 1143 | overall quality: 5