Here is updated Short Interest info based the latest data for both OTCQX and TSX (Oct. 31, 2012):
2- Table to evaluate average short selling price:
3- Remaining Warrants:
1- Short Interests are definitely losing their grip as their risk is dangerously increasing, and so close to HPA Plant commisssioning, start-up, and cash generation. Actually, since CTO - during which period Shorts thought they would make easy money on a Company being audited - Short Interests have been caught pants down (UC Rusal MOU, constant and positive developments since then) and never had the right conditions (i.e. sell-off) to fully cover in the money and all they could do was to keep shorting and hoping to get an occasion or try create one (e.g. Hykawy's ridiculous target price). Now, they simply have to stop denying their own failure, write-off their losses and turn long.
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=ort&t=list&m=31734939&l=0&pd=0&r=0#pmzAcFGTp7mR16XX.99
2- Despite their intense shorting (short positions increased by 36% since Sept. 20 - peak at 3.93) , the Short Interests were not able to trigger favorable conditions (sell-off) to cover their large position. This Company is too strong to be sent to their wished/desired 0.90$ "price target". See more credible (yet very conservative) price target and opinions from several analysts and experts:
3- So far, the share price has been greater than the average short selling price for 8 consecutive days.
4- The shorts are not able to generate downward price movement anymore and are failing to bring the share price below their average short selling price (and have the possibility to make money).
5- They are now on the losing side. Any covering will result (on average) into losing money. With now approx. 11,000,000 short positions, they will be losing $110,000 for each cent above their average short selling price (now at approx. $2.64).
For example, if they could cover all of their short positions at $3.20, they would be losing ($3.20-$2.64)*11M = $ 6,160,000, using warrants or not (minimum exercise price of cheapest remaining warrants is $3.20).
- Note that this would be very unlikely since the share price peaked to $3.93 after just covering of 178,142 short positions (see Table 1 above) in the first half of September. So imagine what covering 11,000,000 short positions means... The shorts will become a very good source of buyers.
Their game of triggering volatility worked once (with their intense short selling) and created a new low of 2.40, but at the expense of a huge short position increase (+36%, see point 2 above). So I don't think it will work twice, plus they are now in a weaker/riskier position than ever. Be prepared to collect all of their attempts.
"Expect upward significant correction.
We are still on an upward trend with new low of 2.40 - if confirmed today. CONFIRMED
1.55--> 3.93 (with only covering of 178,142 short positions in the 1st 2 weeks of September)
2.40 -->6.09+++ (At least 2,542,949 short positions - as of Oct. 15, 2012 - added since peak to get this artificial pressure on SP and capping but also significantly increasing their exposure to SHORT SQUEEZE - imagine what just some covering will trigger)"
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=ort&t=list&m=31730374&l=0&pd=0&r=0#bjZdCsPg5mII7b7Y.99
6- Remaining warrant quantity (10,062,500) is now smaller than total short positions (approx. 11,000,000). The 10,062,500 outstanding warrants (if would be all used by Short hands - unlikely) could allow limiting the losses by covering at an average price of $4.36 the same amount of short positions. On those short positions, the losses would be "limited" to 10,062,500 * ($4.36-$2.64) = $17,307,500. And there would still remain approx. 1.0 M short positions to cover, with unlimited loss potential.
So, Short Interests would better be covering asap (as much as they can below $4.36* to minimize their losses)... but it will not stay there very long.
Market will realize that the share price has been artificially maintained low by their short selling, share dumping into the bid (from other accounts) that also triggered profit taking, shook investors confidence, etc. The confidence can come back very fast...
*Average warrant exercise price= (1,078,125 *$3.20 + 8,984,375*$4.50)/(10,062,500) =$4.36
7- Now, any new added short position has no warrant to limit the losses, so the losses can be unlimited.
8- This is also new: any new added short position is loser from the start since average short selling price is below share price.
9- Also, shorting now is a very risky gamble, so close to a very successful commissioning to be expected from Company's track record.
10- Short Interest Ratio (SIR) is 13 days; significantly above 5 days which is considered high for Short Squeeze potential.
See how DES-PE-RA-TE they are!
Short Interests are sending their poets roadtologic and DayOfReckoning to deliberately flood this board (and certainly other ones) with their "concerns", "questions", - even directly recommending to short Orbite ! (not too wise after seing above numbers...)- and systematic denigrating and suggesting the only possible outcome of Orbite is failure, whereas in reality, it is totally the opposite. Orbite HPA is fully derisked and has been running at full scale already. Resources, patents, clean and low-cost technology, etc. have an immense value that is barely reflected into the current share price.
The share price is largely undervalued from their intense and sustained action on investor psychology with shorting and bashing over the last several months. These deceptive methods will be the reason of their own costly failure. Market is very patient, but not stupid.
Don't get impressed by their Big Bluff, don't let them put the risk on your shoulders: the risk is definitely on the Short side, and it is EXTREMELY high.
- 8 consecutive days above average short selling price; 50-day moving average above average short selling price; low volumes in the last 20 days (higher volume days brought share price above 2.80); ready to bounce back:
Our best defense is accumulation (benefit from them) and patience. The share price will go where it belongs. This Company value and potential are outstanding.
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