Yes this stock is manipulated to death. but the botton line is this,
1. There is an undervalued hard asset behind the shares. The core NAV for this stock is about $7, ( that is the net value of proven reserves and producing assets ) the risked NAV is somewhere around $11 ( that includes value for unbooked reserves and undeveloped assets. these valuations more or less match both the CIBC and RBC analysts.
2. The biggest investor here is the teachers pension plan at ~ 30% ownership, and their cost is somewhere north of $9 so I doubt they will accept a takeover for less than risked NAV at a loss to them.
3. The insiders are buying which means, chairman just bought 100,000 @4.7, this guy knows what he is doing, he is on the boards of bonavista and canadian resources. he knows the values of the assests nuvista has are worth more than 4.7
4. There is no takeover in the works. first teachers is not looking to sell, second insiders are buying, if there is a deal in the works they would not be allowed to trader the shares.
so buy this stock and hold it. anything under 4.7 is a steal. The manipulators will test your nerves but in the end you will get payed.