Interesting that only 1,400 shares are currently offered below $2/share and 5,900 between $2 and $3
The current price of $1.95 is above the 10 day ($1.80) and 50 day ($1.64) moving averages with the next objective and likely resistance point the 200 day ($2.86) moving average. Note that the longer term average is falling and the shorter averages are rising. A cross-over of the market price through the 200 day moving average would be very bullish when confirmed by the shorter term moving averages crossing over.
There is a price gap between $2.60 and $2.79 which is a nearer term objective (next month) - gaps tend to get filled eventually. A medium term objective would be the price gap between $3.90 and $4.55
Obviously technical analysis paints a bullish story right now for the stock. The fundamental picture is however cloudy with conflicting signals. The Pennsaid 2% application is a key - if approved I suspect there is solid value in the long-term patent protection; worth far more than what the current market cap (share float x market price) would suggest. Pliaglis and Synera royalties - found money at this point in time as the market is currently giving minimal value to these income streams [Management is expected to provide an update in October].
The lawsuit and Paladin loan adds some drama as well as the potential for generic competition to come into the US market in 2014. No pain no gain! This is perhaps one reason the share price is so low. Another is the discount factor associated with Nuvo management. They have continually disappointed investors - what they say and what they have accomplished has earned the company a lower than would otherwise be expected market valuation. Further by paying above market compensation and squandering a boatload of cash resources the company has failed to reach operating profitability despite having three FDA approved drugs!
Insider buying plus Dan and John taking 1/2 their salary in stock units - a positive development.
WF10 testing and eventual partnering if the results look as promising as the first Phase 2 trials - a reason to stick around for the next year.
Please do your own due diligence. I would like to hear what others are thinking and why...