Seems to me you are over analyzing it.. This is next year's play.. Look at it next year, if you have a position and if you don't, November and December is a chance to build one.. As for their cost structure etc. seems you have not look at the details they have already provided.. Their advantages are numerous and they have an edge over imported potash.. BFS comes out next year and it will tighten the number some more..
I am long and am not going to fret about what it is doing right now.. I will probably even add when I can raise some money..