Nothing like a good find to boost the spirits but let us remember NKO has only a 10% interest in the field and the Indian government has been screwing around so long with gas pricing etc the value of the find may not be much unless BP can strip the condensate first.
The really kicker for NKO has to be a major find in Indonesia. However, eastern Indonesian deepwater drilling has not been very successful. I caculate some 26 wells drilled in the past 24 months with 1 success and 1 partial success (that being NKO's last well).
If we want to see $20 or $50/share then we need a couple of hits in Indonesia or this stock is going to flounder. Its a game of probability and what NKO has done is arrange a seriers of about 20 drilles each with a chance of success of 10-20%. This does not mean there are 2-4 "for sure" hits as the drill bit can not remember if it found anything in the last hole. If you flipped a coin 10 times and it came up heads does it mean tails is next - you still have a 50/50 chance on the next flip. Same here.
I have owned this stock for a while and got my rear end handed to me. Success in a prolific block (that holds a 10% working interest) does not mean Indonesia is going to pan out. Success is Indonesia is when the stock will fly.
NKO's track record in Indonesia is zero so their geologists are no better than anyone elses thus we betting on a came of chance.