Interesting report, typically conservative for TD....but in the Investment Conclusion I felt the analyst was contradictory to say the least:
However, on Fully-risked NAVPS, Niko trades at a significant discount. We still believe that Niko has a
world-class exploration portfolio (particularly in Indonesia) and valuable contingent resources in India and
Trinidad. Our valuation of long-term exploration potential implies the company achieving below 15% longterm returns on historical and expected investments, when multiple farm-ins by larger companies imply that those companies see potential for significantly higher returns on a majority of Niko’s Indonesian blocks.
Multiple deals appear to indicate that major oil companies could be interested in Niko or its assets, suggesting management should have options available to avoid another cash crunch.
Potential catalysts include results from Niko’s third deepwater exploration well in Indonesia (Cikar-1)
expected in late March, as well as the MJ-1 well in India. Potential asset sales that help to reduce financial
leverage could also cause a positive market reaction. Possible government approval of higher gas prices in
India remains an unpredictable potential catalyst, in our opinion, but one that likely has significantly more
upside potential than downside risk over the long term. We believe that the government will make a decision to raise gas prices for the D6 block before late (calendar) 2013.
Talk about a**-covering! The well was disappointing....and they've had some bad luck recently so we'll assume only a 15% success rate going forward but if they hit anything else the stock has huge potential!
"Bow-tie Guy" is a bit over zealous - but at least he has the nads to sack up and put his neck on the line!
Grab some Calls farther out in the year - cheap way to play the upside.
ps. my opinion on Ajek-1 is it's way too early to judge the success or failure of the entire block based on one well...