Here's their analysis. A bit more modest target than Scotia but still well above current levels. The stock is rated Sector Outperform. GLTA
Angle Energy Inc.
Q3/12 Results Relatively In Line; On Track To Hit Guidance
? Production for the quarter averaged 14,222 Boe/d, in line with the estimate that was given with the operational update on Oct. 16. Cash flow was $19.7 MM, light to our $20.8 MM, with operating cost and realized pricing to blame.
? Angle will drill 5.5 net more wells this year, bringing capex up to ~$162 MM (previous guidance was $140 MM and our prior estimate of $159 MM). These wells will add little production this year and we do not think this should be taken as an over-spend to meet guidance.
? We remain convinced that the market is undervaluing Angle’s asset, but do believe that the company will have to restructure its portfolio. While the Cardium play at Harmattan continues to be strong and oil volumes are increasing, the impact is muted given the existing gas-weighted assets.
? Angle trades at 4.7x 2013 EV/DACF and 59% of our risked NAV vs. group averages of 6.7x and 86%, respectively. We have reduced our target from $6.00 to $5.50 on a lower NAV multiple. However, we continue to believe that long-term value investors will be rewarded investing at these levels