......but I have been burned before so I really prefer to invest in a company that has their risks mitigated as much as possible, but still have significant upside potential and the (non equity based) capital available to achieve it. I hope this is the last time I have to reiterate this, but to clarify again, Athena was clearly communicated as a very high initial decline well. Wells have significantly different decline curves...... some drop initially at a relatively lower rate than average then unfortunately decline quicker than average after the first year....some have a relatively higher than average first year rate but stabilize thereafter with a relatively lower decline rate than average. Yes P1 unfortunately had an obstruction that acentuated the initial decline and the partners made a call to not spend the significant capital but get the crude extracted later in the cycle...it can happen to any producer and when you take the calculator and do the NPV calculations of spending $10 million or more to remediate the well when the engineering team says it is just a deferment of production then that is fine with me. The well at time of Q3 reporting was still producing between 10500 and 11000 bblspd with NO WATER CUT. Now IF that continues into January, the hypothesis will be validated and the stabilization of production should be evidenced by that ocurrance. Many wells have a first year decline rate of 30-50%, so regardless of P1 if January production is as was just mentioned, the partial pugging of P1 is somewhat water under the bridge.
Takeover Smakeover.....forget the darn takeover. I don't know what happened and neither does anyone else on this board. Take a REAL GOOD look at companies like Petro Minerales, Niko Resouces, Talisman, Bankers and the list goes on and on. Even my SA play Gran Tierra a fantastic company has tripled production over the last three years and is trading at three year ago prices and ultra low valuation (It is trading at $5.60 and RBC has a target of $11). When looking at Ithaca's performance please do so relative to a larger group of E&Ps. Yes Mart (for instance) has done very well (but struggled for years!) but I for one would rather bet on the north sea than wonder if the rebels will shut the pipeline down for six months next year as opposed to their usual two.
I am not trashing INA or SLG or XEL or AEN but look at Ithaca relative to these companies as well when looking at production growth and future prospects and the likelihood of these prospects ever being achieved.
My vote is with Ithaca.....STEADY AS SHE GOES THANKS.