The rate of change slows as any position peaks out at double tops, it can correct and even start another strong run but exit is manageable here. On exhaustion of 3 year tops and 6 month strong move tops duplicated thepercent rate of trend upside change slows week over week. Thus downside risk is here but upside gain is not in a break out position.
You cannot win all trades but if you win 65% fab anf if loss is 8% and gains are 20% plus, you win. Here on HVu the loss on $100,000 I can accept $8.00 but if it falls in to win trade category this is minimum 25% win. This is high risk, yes it is, meaning the 8% loss can come quickly. But that occurs if HVU drops now 88 cents. I could take decline price earlier unless it gaps down 88 cents. For comparison, rate of change GE may take 3 weeks to be a negative 8%. Rate of change is different per trade. So upside ratio on HVU is 7:1. I can risk 8% to see if a gain of 56% materializes. At 20% up I can reduce 25% and that decreases risk of the hold and safe exit.
Thus at and if 56% occurs, I can risk to hold looking for incremental highe rexits. Not saying this hapens, but at least I have pre-determine planned strategies on the trade.
Now, as to Monday. Dynamics are changing, more earnings reported. GDP in, weekly jobs report in. What remains is the open mouth policy of Draghi EU or a Fed injection. Those are variables to deal with on the occurance.
As to moves on HVU. Well the May 1 date stands out and nasty US politics to continue. Next, we saw the biggest gain on HVU occur on an over weekend hold, April 12 to April 15th. If market is nervous we mave have seen an early indicator here this week. I will risk the trade and hold entire position for Monday unless I see a strong sell off on HVU. Stop out $6.80 just above Wed / Thurs low possibly occurs with HVU in negative pricing today or a late day surge to close up 3%. The past 4 trade days mirror the day lows for the four trade days April 11 to April 16th, exception today, low is 14 cents higher. Check it out.
I will focus on five of the S& P 500 and / or NDQ 100 companies who next report earnings. Pay attention to reactions to earnings in market. As I write this we are closer to day low than the day high. Daily clean outs of stops occur or trends reverse. I am just trading, with opinion to possibles. Earnings if strong, expect HVU may collapse lower. Trade as you see it not as you wish it, but expect intra day volatility -higher -lower -higher -lower.
Another beautiful spring weekend, enjoy, GLTA, Cheers Manxcan.