I think it all depends on where the price is now and what's the demand coming up. Last year, HNU was on a killer run early Sept to mid-Oct in the shoulder season. When I look back at the reports, demand was over 10% most of the time above previous year which was supposed a more normal year. The summer took out a lot from the inventory so price heading into it was already rather low.
The spring season this year saw much below normal temps, while prices were low from the warmer winter before mid-Feb. Can't just go by the seasonal.