Daily Gas Flows (Comments) 

.....NATGAS: Waiting on tonights & tomorrows weeklies, modeling thus far is for an 86 BCF injection on the 
.....EIA-weighted model (99 BCF on capacity / gas-flow modeling) come Thursdays EIA report.. Baseline for 
.....the week was for an 84 BCF injection, scoring the week as 3 BCF to-the-bearish (EIA-wtd.) or 13 BCF 
.....to-the-bearish (cap/gas-flow). 

.....Looking ahead to next week, early gas-flow counts start the week at 39 BCF (EIA-weighted) on mild 
.....weather, as climate traces out the remainder of the spring shoulder and we await summer heat. 

.....Looking further ahead to late June and especially August, the NOAA progs are starting to show heat on 
.....their 6-10 and 8-14 day progs, and the economy is expanding towards (and in anticipation of) the traditional 
.....July retooling period... probably giving natgas good support the latter part of June. 

.....Then comes retooling (first 2 weeks of July) and natgas traders are going to have fun with these swings. 
.....The economy is hot right now, and especially the auto group. When retooling hits, it probably set up a 
.....small two-week lul for natgas (as the abnormal bump in downtime pushes up injections relative to 
.....baselines). All of that then reverses the middle of July on (when the (hot) auto group comes back on 
.....line for their 2014-model production runs). 

.....Overall, natgas looks neutral in the very short-term as baselines look quite balanced to slightly bearish, 
.....and the longer-term model has returned to decent numbers. Longer-term natgas retains a strong bullish- 
.....look on drilling psycology and the expextation of a rolling-over of production (which has commenced already 
.....in large parts of the US but is delayed in the Northeast by continuing tie-ins of older drilling inventory). 



.....ECONOMICS: We are two weeks into a strong recovery, with the industrial-production index up to 121.2 
.....(from its 119.5 trough May 31st) (its March 27th high was 124.8). Consumption model (189.8) continues 
.....to set all-time highs and is rapidly expanding. The growing gap between the consumption and industrial 
.....models may also bode well for productivity (though I remain in my thinking presumming that urban growth 
.....(which the models can not see due to poor reporting) is a major factor, with increased importing also a 
.....potential factor). 

.....Overall the economy looks well supported and the growing gap between consumption and industrial- 
.....production probably bodes well for upcoming corporate 2nd quarter earnings. 

.....The Federal Reserve has no reason to tighten as well in the short or intermediate term on all of this. 



.....PRODUCTION / RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL MODELING: Production Model remains in audit with problems 
.....still to be resolved. Rewrote one model over the Memorial-Day weekend, and another (already in the model) 
.....appears to be skewed by withdrawals and needs to be rebuilt. R&C continues to be impacted by the skew issues 
.....(it has been turned into a "balancing item" .....by the other models) which will be dealt with in time by the 
.....replacement of the EIA-weighted model with the new (presumed more accurate) capacity model. (The storage 
.....demand category (also off) still represents the EIA-weighted model, but aside from the R&C, production, and 
.....storage models all other models (Generation, Industrial, Import, and Export) are walled off from the skew and 
.....production-counting problems, and presumed accurate). 



Natgas scheduling to refineries... 
...................................Scheduling 
...................Day........... (MMCF) 
...............05/18/13.(w)......374 
...............05/19/13.(w)......371 
...............05/20/13............352 
...............05/21/13............346 
...............05/22/13............319 
...............05/23/13............318 
...............05/24/13............371i 

...............05/25/13.(w)......365 
...............05/26/13.(w)......365 
...............05/27/13............376 
...............05/28/13............356 
...............05/29/13............343 
...............05/30/13............329 
...............05/31/13............325 

...............06/01/13.(w)......344 
...............06/02/13.(w)......353 
...............06/03/13............360 
...............06/04/13............379 
...............06/05/13............378 
...............06/06/13............357 
...............06/07/13............366 

...............06/08/13.(w)......361 
...............06/09/13.(w)......361 
...............06/10/13............380 
...............06/11/13............384 
...............06/12/13............356 
...............06/13/13............365i 
...............06/14/13............380i 

...............06/15/13.(w)......393 
...............06/16/13.(w)......382i 
...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday) 



Today's economic numbers... 

...............Weeklies.....Production........Consumption 
...............04/13/13.............122.2.................165.1 
...............04/20/13.............122.4.................165.3 
...............04/27/13.............123.0.................171.1 
...............05/04/13.............123.6.................173.4 
...............05/11/13.............123.6.................174.1 
...............05/18/13.............122.1.................174.0 
...............05/25/13.............120.1.................175.8 
...............06/01/13.............119.6.................177.8 
...............06/08/13.............119.9.................183.4 
...............06/15/13.............121.2.................189.8 

.........................................---28 week avg---........---Daily (Raw)---......Daily 
................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n........Prod'n.....Cons'n......Food 
...............05/17/13.............122.5.......173.4r.........1.841.......34.68.......53296 
...............05/18/13.............122.2.......173.6r.........1.842.......35.28.......54283 
...............05/19/13.............121.9.......173.8r.........1.842.......35.28.......55559 
...............05/20/13.............121.6.......173.7r.........1.845.......35.28.......54656 
...............05/21/13.............121.3.......173.6r.........1.843.......35.23.......54536 
...............05/22/13.............121.0.......174.0r.........1.836.......42.33.......54567 
...............05/23/13.............120.5.......174.4r.........1.825.......45.23.......54860 
...............05/24/13.............120.3.......175.0r.........1.935.......45.23.......54145 
...............05/25/13.............120.1.......175.4r.........1.895.......43.16.......55344 
...............05/26/13.............119.9.......175.6r.........1.900.......43.16.......55173 
...............05/27/13.............119.8.......175.8r.........1.907.......43.16.......54799 
...............05/28/13.............119.7.......176.1r.........1.890.......43.16.......52242 
...............05/29/13.............119.7.......176.2r.........1.937.......41.96.......59981 
...............05/30/13.............119.5.......176.2r.........1.881.......41.41.......56003 
...............05/31/13.............119.5.......176.7r.........1.924.......41.41.......58514 
...............06/01/13.............119.6.......177.5r.........1.927.......36.19.......50949 
...............06/02/13.............119.7.......178.2r.........1.934.......36.19.......50274 
...............06/03/13.............119.8.......178.8r.........1.926.......35.88.......48699 
...............06/04/13.............119.9.......179.9r.........1.926.......39.82.......49776 
...............06/05/13.............119.9.......181.0r.........1.908.......39.82.......49532 
...............06/06/13.............119.8.......181.8r.........1.917.......38.82.......49700 
...............06/07/13.............119.9.......182.7r.........1.956.......38.92r......49808 
...............06/08/13.............119.9.......183.3r.........1.922.......37.25.......49971 
...............06/09/13.............120.0.......183.8r.........1.927.......37.25.......49567 
...............06/10/13.............120.2.......184.2r.........1.936.......36.85.......49997 
...............06/11/13.............120.3.......185.1r.........1.924.......43.35.......51569 
...............06/12/13.............120.4.......186.0..........1.889i......42.35i......52657i 
...............06/13/13.............120.6.......187.3..........1.912i......45.25i......48826i 
...............06/14/13.............120.9.......188.6..........1.931i......45.25i......48671i 
...............06/15/13.............121.2i......189.8..........1.939i......45.25i......48347i 
...............06/16/13................n/a...........n/a..............n/a........45.25i......46990i