Here are the EIA source documents:
NG demand for generation last week was back up on a percentage basis to the levels we were seeing for most of May. The differential with last year was at it's lowest since the week ended March 8th. Daily numbers this week suggest demand is back around the same level. Looking towards tomorrows EIA injection report we have Rob Ry's capacity model at 107 (higher that it was last week) but his EIA model suggests 91. Powerburn is projecting 95 as of this morning. On set of surveyed analysts ranged from 88 to 112 averaging 95. At this point I think the analysts as a group have taken the recent injection surprises to heart and weighted the guesses appropriately, it is possible that it is another triple digit number, but it would not surprise me too much if part of last weeks surprise was reporting error due to the long weekend, and that this week we correct the other direction, but still with numbers near Rob Ry's. I am anxiously awaiting Rob Ry's numbers for generation demand for the rest of this week, since I believe we might have hit the inflection point I spoke of a where the exaggerated shoulder season injections have hit an end with tomorrow's report, and suddenly the generation demand for NG starting yesterday, and going forward, will exceed the expectations that the shoulder season has given analysts and the market. So while tomorrow could still be seen as bearish by analysts (if it hits Rob Ry's capacity model numbers) I believe that by next week the analysts will be expecting something at or on the high side of the 5 year average but be taken back by unexpected generation demand putting the injection 5 to 10 bcf below the 5 year average. So next weeks report may be a turn to the bullish for the summer (with weather co-operating).