Daily Gas Flows

.....I am late (again) with posting due to computer issues. Years ago (when modeling was far simpler) I used to be able to 
.....get these posts done by 2 am (long before markets opened). Now it's sometimes 2pm. My system is cholking! I am 
.....trying (with difficulty) to patiently wait for Intels new "Haswell" chip due out in June, which should relieve the bottlenecks 
.....as it is supposed to to be 2x faster in math (by the rumors) than their present "Ivy Bridge". We shall see... 



.....NATGAS: Still one minor weekly not in the modeling (it is out, just haven't added it yet) and modeling sits at an injection 
.....of 36 BCF (EIA-wtd model) and 42 BCF (Capacity / Gas-flow model) for Thursdays EIA report. With the weeks baseline 
.....at 33 BCF, the estimates would be 3 BCF to-the-bearish (EIA) and 9 BCF to-the-bearish (Cap/GF) and would be the first 
.....report on the bearish side since Feb 8th. 

.....Next weeks injection report (on this weeks mild weather) looks to be headed for the 70's, though baselines are again 
.....trying to slide into the positive. As we cross into the new month again we are confronted with potential bullish shifts 
.....from 1) collapsing natgas-rig counts and 2) gas-flow shifts from near-term economic strengthening. 

.....The YOY deficit (767 BCF EIA, 869 BCF Capacity / Gas-Flow) are seeing some improvement, with the EIA deficit off of 
.....its April 5th weekly-peak by 48 BCF, and the Cap/GF off of its April 26th peak by 30 BCF. May has just started, and the 
.....Months of May-July have the best shot at reducing the YOY deficit of any month as coal-to-natgas switching peaked 
.....last year in May (8.56 BCF/day) before declining to 7.79 (June), 8.22 (July), 4.90 (Aug), 4.22 (Sep), then 3.14 (Oct). 
.....(Note... these coal-to-natgas numbers are switching assumptions based on year-over-three-year-averaging, and are 
.....probably skewed high by last years June/July heat.) 

.....As June and July were very hot months last year (generation comparisons were kept high through those months due to 
.....the heat), additional opportunity remains to reduce the YOY deficit from milder-weather this year (unless last years 
.....June/July heat repeats). 

.....Once into August however (unless fundamentals change) things get ugly-bullish on YOY comparisons and the declining rig- 
.....counts (unless reversed) will haunt the US natgas markets. The longer-term model takes the YOY deficit down to a low 
.....of 515 BCF on September 6th, then builds it back up to 1.024 TCF on February 14th. 

.....These longer-term projections, however, assume flat natgas production (where I am thinking it will follow the rig-counts, 
.....so (barring the unexpected) the YOY deficit numbers probably bottom out somewhere around Aug 9th (550 BCF or more 
.....YOY deficit) before turning up in my thinking. 

.....But this is only the YOY stat's. I suspect the YO5Y numbers will look more bullish throughout. 



.....ECONOMICS: Monday / Tuesday actuals reflect the continuation of weekend economic-strengthening. The economy has 
.....begune to climb again and looks to have started its third up-leg with a decent tandem-move in both the Industrial and consumption 
.....indexes. I wish the food-group numbers would come into better allignment with the economics (though they have not through 
.....the whole of the 2013 expansion) as the consumer looks more to be being dragged along (by way of monitary factors) than 
.....leading. The same can be said of the industrial side (by way of their lagging the consumption side) and the expansion looks 
.....more Federal-reserve and investor-led than anything. But still, an expansion is an expansion, and the economy looks to at 
.....least as solid as Federal-Reserve monitary QE policy, on which it is surviving. 



.....PRODUCTION / RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL MODELING: Production Model remains in audit with problems still to be resolved. 
.....Will be adding two new pipes to the production model shortly, while a fourth (already in the model) appears to be skewed by 
.....withdrawals and needs to be rebuilt. R&C continues to be impacted by the skew issues (it has been turned into a "balancing item" 
.....by the other models) which will be dealt with in time by the replacement of the EIA-weighted model with the new (presumed more 
.....accurate) capacity model. (The storage demand category (also off) still represents the EIA-weighted model, but aside from the R&C, 
.....production, and storage models all other models (Generation, Industrial, Import, and Export) are walled off from the skew and 
.....production-counting problems, and presumed accurate). 



Natgas scheduling to refineries... 
...................................Scheduling 
...................Day........... (MMCF) 
...............03/30/13.(w)......424 
...............03/31/13.(w)......418 
...............04/01/13............405 
...............04/02/13............413 
...............04/03/13............410 
...............04/04/13............380 
...............04/05/13............400 

...............04/06/13.(w)......400 
...............04/07/13.(w)......406 
...............04/08/13............398 
...............04/09/13............387 
...............04/10/13............379 
...............04/11/13............387 
...............04/12/13............438 

...............04/13/13.(w)......423 
...............04/14/13.(w)......422 
...............04/15/13............435 
...............04/16/13............425 
...............04/17/13............410 
...............04/18/13............388 
...............04/19/13............402 

...............04/20/13.(w)......415 
...............04/21/13.(w)......418 
...............04/22/13............415 
...............04/23/13............407 
...............04/24/13............372r 
...............04/25/13............404 
...............04/26/13............394i 

...............04/27/13.(w)......405i 
...............04/28/13.(w)......394i 
...............04/29/13............386i 
...............04/30/13............321i 
...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday) 



Today's economic numbers... 

...............Weeklies.....Production........Consumption 
...............02/23/13.............120.6.................149.7 
...............03/02/13.............121.4.................153.1 
...............03/09/13.............122.7.................162.8 
...............03/16/13.............123.7.................170.0 
...............03/23/13.............124.5.................177.0 
...............03/30/13.............124.6.................173.3 
...............04/06/13.............123.1.................168.2 
...............04/13/13.............122.2.................165.1 
...............04/20/13.............122.4.................165.3 
...............04/27/13.............123.0.................171.1 

.........................................---28 week avg---........---Daily (Raw)---......Daily 
................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n........Prod'n.....Cons'n......Food 
...............03/29/13.............124.7.......174.9..........1.965.......29.08.......43116 
...............03/30/13.............124.6.......173.3..........1.954.......28.88.......42586 
...............03/31/13.............124.4.......171.4..........1.953.......28.89.......42898 
...............04/01/13.............124.2.......171.0..........1.918.......35.84.......58636 
...............04/02/13.............124.0.......170.4..........1.896.......35.84.......58677 
...............04/03/13.............123.7.......169.9..........1.933.......35.84.......58244 
...............04/04/13.............123.5.......169.8..........1.966.......36.64.......59241 
...............04/05/13.............123.2.......169.6..........1.918.......36.34.......58983 
...............04/06/13.............123.1.......168.2..........1.950.......36.04.......58421 
...............04/07/13.............123.1.......166.3..........1.953.......36.04.......58677 
...............04/08/13.............123.0.......164.4..........1.957.......36.04.......57663 
...............04/09/13.............122.8.......163.4..........1.854.......36.04.......58561 
...............04/10/13.............122.5.......163.2..........1.841.......36.03.......58150 
...............04/11/13.............122.3.......163.9..........1.911.......37.73.......48388 
...............04/12/13.............122.1.......164.3..........2.004.......37.43.......49708 
...............04/13/13.............122.2.......165.1..........2.065.......40.68.......54107 
...............04/14/13.............122.3.......165.5..........2.050.......40.68.......54603 
...............04/15/13.............122.4.......165.7..........2.061.......40.68.......53941 
...............04/16/13.............122.4.......165.7..........1.995.......37.76.......53524 
...............04/17/13.............122.5.......165.7..........1.931.......37.76.......53357 
...............04/18/13.............122.5.......165.8..........1.946.......38.26.......55203 
...............04/19/13.............122.4.......165.7..........1.937.......38.29.......55958 
...............04/20/13.............122.4.......165.3..........2.006.......37.79.......58031 
...............04/21/13.............122.3.......164.8..........1.975.......37.79.......58718 
...............04/22/13.............122.4.......164.5..........1.995.......37.87.......58092 
...............04/23/13.............122.4.......164.5..........1.951.......37.87.......56302 
...............04/24/13.............122.4.......166.3..........2.003r......37.87.......55138 
...............04/25/13.............122.7.......168.4..........2.049.......39.84.......54105 
...............04/26/13.............122.9.......169.7..........2.035i......38.54i.......53916i 
...............04/27/13.............123.0.......171.1..........1.990i......38.89i.......56684i 
...............04/28/13.............123.1.......172.8..........1.981i......38.89i.......55279i 
...............04/29/13.............123.2i......173.2i..........1.938i......38.89i.......55208i 
...............04/30/13................n/a...........n/a...............n/a.......37.29i.......58172i