So you are not lost here. What I have done and expect. First, I often do what I encourage others to do, reduced position prior to report and I have rebought on the drop to bring my position level. I would have added back on if it went up. Both looked the best alternative verses holding entire position.
1. The injection was well below est 40BCF, my objective at 40 est BCF we would still be below 5 year average. That storage mark continues to be used to move NG spot up.
2. The shortfall from estimate is in part probably low due to inadequate reporting requirements. I expect we see a build of 60 - 70 BCF injection two weeks out as production region shows a dramatic increase on BCF injection numbers. Not many expect 15 -20 F below normal to last into June 1 2013.
3. As the EIA reports - At 1,704 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.
4. The EIA projected an average NG spot of $3.50 for 2013. A 4% margin of error puts that at $3.64. I expect we still see below $4.00 NG spot and test that EIA number going forward.
5. Historical swing patterns favour DGAZ to reach $9.24 next week pre-report excluding extreme favourable weather. The same swing pattern can create a low of $8.09 pre-report come today or Monday. There is a level of panic helping pro traders move the market. If we did see $8.09, pre-report best price expected would be reduced to $8.93.
I realize I entered early in March, but going flat there and later big reductions have kept position manageable. One can generate a profit if price were to move positive in May. It may not happen, but I owe myself the patience to see what April 25th to May 2nd EIA reports bring to the table. I can always reduce or exit. The weather does not look good, but market price seemed to overshoot reality of season. It sure looks better for injections than weather which caused 95 - 94 BCF withdrawals back to back March 21 & March 28. .
I will see you to assess this on Tuesday verses Monday panic day. Big moves cut both ways. It would be all smiles Dgas if this is breaking $11.50 in two weeks from the coming Monday.
Cheers Manxcan, enjoy a warm weekend -somewhere!