Daily Gas Flows (Comments) 

.....NATGAS: The EIA report came in at 31 BCF injected, 7 BCF to-the-bullish of the 38 BCF baseline. Next weeks early tally .....goes into the weekend at a bullish 30 BCF, and next weeks cold makes the rest of April look not much better in terms of .....injecting. The YOY deficit, which dipped below 800 BCF a week ago, is back above 800 BCF again climbing on the EIA- .....weighted model. On the Capacity / gas-flow model (which is not distorted by producing-region salt overweighting) the .....YOY deficit is approaching 900 BCF. 

.....Fundamentals continue to point to an impending grave situation in natgas supply/demand fundamentals, which I expect .....to build upon themselves until E&P cash-flows bloat enough to A) finance 70-80% higher drilling rates, and B) produce the .....necessary E&P optimism on natgas (above oil) to do so. As hard as point A above will be to do, point B will be much more .....difficult. 

.....The buy-side should brace themselves for a once-in-a-decade spike in natgas over the next 12 months, and hedge accordingly .....as soon as possible, especially July-13 on as non-industry side (which is unaware) will likely not hold their short-positions .....available to the natgas industry for long, and the window to spreading risk across energy markets will close. 

.....There are two (not one) difficulties facing the natgas buy-side. First, supply is just now starting to deteriorate on a delayed- .....response (thanks to NE unconnected wellhead inventory that is now likely nearly depleted) to plunging (drilling) rig counts. .....Second, the whole of the natgas E&P segment has lost its "Politically Correct" psycological advantage (thanks to new .....concerns over fracing). 

.....Back in the 90's, it used to be difficult to find a pure-play in oil save for a handful of players. Today it is harder to find pure-plays .....in natgas on the E&P side, as even solid natgas plays that dabble in oil now have the lions share of their revenue from oil and
.....are treated as oil plays by Wall Street. 

.....Everyone wants to play the hero. No-one wants to play the villain. 



.....ECONOMICS: On the "Official" (28-day) indexes we are seeing an uptrend, though overall the economy looks (while healthy) not .....to be ramping further at the moment. For the time being, the economy looks to have reached a level it is comfortable at. 



.....1ST QUARTER EARNINGS start to hit this week, and look to be stellar on the consumption index. The gap between the industrial .....index and the consumption index was stellar for the quarter and of a nature that (looking back) historically implies solid earnings. 

.....1ST QUARTER GDP should (if it follows gas flows) I think positively surprise (in spite of the China fears making the rounds this .....morning).... sequentially (Q1 over Q4) gas-flows underlying the industrial index were up 2.49% quarter-over-quarter, while steel- .....plant scheduling (durable-goods indicative) was up 9.85% and the consumption index up 10.52%. 



.....PRODUCTION / RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL MODELING: Production Model remains in audit with problems 
.....still to be resolved. Will be adding three new pipes to the production model shortly, while a fourth (already in the 
.....model) appears to be skewed by withdrawals and needs to be rebuilt. R&C continues to be impacted by the skew 
.....issues (it has been turned into a "balancing item" by the other models) which will be dealt with in time by the 
.....replacement of the EIA-weighted model with the new (presumed more accurate) capacity model. (The storage 
.....demand category (also off) still represents the EIA-weighted model, but aside from the R&C, production, and 
.....storage models all other models (Generation, Industrial, Import, and Export) are walled off from the skew and 
.....production-counting problems, and presumed accurate). 



Natgas scheduling to refineries... 
...................................Scheduling 
...................Day........... (MMCF) 
...............03/16/13.(w)......422 
...............03/17/13.(w)......413 
...............03/18/13............403 
...............03/19/13............402 
...............03/20/13............367 
...............03/21/13............364 
...............03/22/13............382 

...............03/23/13.(w)......413 
...............03/24/13.(w)......435 
...............03/25/13............428 
...............03/26/13............426 
...............03/27/13............442 
...............03/28/13............432 
...............03/29/13............424 

...............03/30/13.(w)......424 
...............03/31/13.(w)......418 
...............04/01/13............405 
...............04/02/13............413 
...............04/03/13............410 
...............04/04/13............380 
...............04/05/13............400 

...............04/06/13.(w)......400 
...............04/07/13.(w)......406 
...............04/08/13............398 
...............04/09/13............387 
...............04/10/13............380 
...............04/11/13............388 
...............04/12/13............438 

...............04/13/13.(w)......423i 
...............04/14/13.(w)......422i 
...............04/15/13............424i 
...............04/16/13............419i 
...............04/17/13............405i 
...............04/18/13............391i 
...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday) 




Today's economic numbers... 

...............Weeklies.....Production........Consumption 
...............02/02/13.............121.2.................161.3 
...............02/09/13.............121.1.................160.5 
...............02/16/13.............120.9.................157.3 
...............02/23/13.............120.6.................149.7 
...............03/02/13.............121.4.................153.1 
...............03/09/13.............122.7.................162.8 
...............03/16/13.............123.7.................170.0 
...............03/23/13.............124.5.................177.0 
...............03/30/13.............124.6.................173.3 
...............04/06/13.............123.1.................168.2 
...............04/13/13.............122.2.................165.1 


.........................................---28 week avg---........---Daily (Raw)---......Daily 
................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n........Prod'n.....Cons'n......Food 
...............03/18/13.............124.0.......171.6..........2.044.......44.77.......54589 
...............03/19/13.............124.1.......172.7..........2.055.......43.29.......59755 
...............03/20/13.............124.3.......173.9..........2.007.......42.49.......56504 
...............03/21/13.............124.3.......175.0..........1.993.......42.49.......58887 
...............03/22/13.............124.4.......176.2..........2.067.......42.49.......57917 
...............03/23/13.............124.5.......177.0..........2.055.......42.54.......55976 
...............03/24/13.............124.6.......177.7..........2.078.......42.54.......55968 
...............03/25/13.............124.7.......178.6..........2.051.......42.54.......56320 
...............03/26/13.............124.7.......178.9..........1.999.......43.04.......60021 
...............03/27/13.............124.8.......178.0..........2.030.......32.03.......52883 
...............03/28/13.............124.7.......176.2..........1.973.......29.08.......43282 
...............03/29/13.............124.7.......174.9..........1.965.......29.08.......43116 
...............03/30/13.............124.6.......173.3..........1.954.......28.88.......42586 
...............03/31/13.............124.4.......171.4..........1.953.......28.89.......42898 
...............04/01/13.............124.2.......171.0..........1.918.......35.84.......58636 
...............04/02/13.............124.0.......170.4..........1.896.......35.84.......58677 
...............04/03/13.............123.7.......169.9..........1.933.......35.84.......58244 
...............04/04/13.............123.5.......169.8..........1.966.......36.64.......59241 
...............04/05/13.............123.2.......169.6..........1.918.......36.34.......58983 
...............04/06/13.............123.1.......168.2..........1.950.......36.04.......58421 
...............04/07/13.............123.1.......166.3..........1.953.......36.04.......58677 
...............04/08/13.............123.0.......164.4..........1.957.......36.04.......57663 
...............04/09/13.............122.8.......163.4..........1.854.......36.04.......58561 
...............04/10/13.............122.5.......163.2..........1.842.......36.03.......58150 
...............04/11/13.............122.3.......163.9..........1.912.......37.73.......48388 
...............04/12/13.............122.1.......164.3..........2.004.......37.43.......49708 
...............04/13/13.............122.2.......165.1..........2.065i......40.68i.......54107i 
...............04/14/13.............122.3.......165.5..........2.050i......40.68i.......54603i 
...............04/15/13.............122.4.......165.7..........2.050i......40.68i.......53941i 
...............04/16/13.............122.4.......165.7..........1.989i......37.76i.......53524i 
...............04/17/13.............122.5i......165.7i..........1.935i......37.77i.......53012i 
...............04/18/13................n/a...........n/a...............n/a.......38.27i.......52623i