Daily Gas Flows (Comments, New Capacity Modeling) 


.....NATGAS: Draw came in about as expected (145 actual vs 147 expected)... 28 BCF to-the-bullish on baseline. 

.....EXPERIMENTAL CAPACITY MODEL: Work has progressed enough that I now have an inventory estimate 
.....on storage, however, keep in mind this is an EXPERIMENTAL model and the initial estimate is raw and may 
.....very well prove to be higher or lower in days to come as the model evolves. (I would not normally post a model 
.....on a first run, however, the magnitude of difference implyed by it looks likely to prevail if not be built upon, so 
.....I believe it significant enough to warrent posting it at this point to let others know what the modeling is likely 
.....going to show as it matures.) 

.....The Experimental Capacity Model (on this initial run) estimates total inventories at 1670 (vs the EIA-weighted 
.....1875, and a year-over-year deficit of 576 BCF (vs 501 on the EIA-weighted model). A column also has been 
.....added for the new model's weeklies. 

......Injections and withdrawals on the new model may be more or less exaggerated vs the EIA-weighted model, 
......depending on the exaggeration in activity in the highly-skewed salt-dome storage facilities implied within the 
......EIA-weighted modeling. 

......The Experimental Capacity Model is initialized on 11/22/04 (The fall-2004 maximum) at the EIA-reported balance 
......(Both models = 3321 BCF as of 11/12/04). It therefore does not deduct implied EIA-skew accumulated before 
......that date, which may yet have to be accounted for to get a truer picture. 


.....ECONOMICS: No changes... red-hot economy... consumption model again last night setting a new all-time high. 



Natgas scheduling to refineries... 
...................................Scheduling 
...................Day........... (MMCF) 
...............02/16/13.(w)......431 
...............02/17/13.(w)......423 
...............02/18/13............404 
...............02/19/13............409 
...............02/20/13............392 
...............02/21/13............407 

...............02/22/13.(w)......412 
...............02/23/13.(w)......432 
...............02/24/13............432 
...............02/25/13............429 
...............02/26/13............438 
...............02/27/13............414 

...............02/28/13.(w)......481 
...............03/01/13.(w)......448 
...............03/02/13............441 
...............03/03/13............440 
...............03/04/13............440 
...............03/05/13............427 
...............03/06/13............420 

...............03/07/13.(w)......418 
...............03/08/13.(w)......435 
...............03/09/13............447 
...............03/10/13............447i 
...............03/11/13............448i 
...............03/12/13............427i 
...............03/13/13............435i 

...............03/14/13.(w)......417i 
...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday) 




Today's economic numbers... 

...............Weeklies.....Production........Consumption 
...............11/24/12.............117.3.................152.6 
...............12/01/12.............117.4.................151.7 
...............12/08/12.............117.6.................153.8 
...............12/15/12.............117.8.................148.4 
...............12/22/12.............118.6.................142.3 
...............12/29/12.............119.3.................139.8 
...............01/05/13.............120.5.................141.6 
...............01/12/13.............121.1.................146.2 
...............01/19/13.............121.6.................152.6 
...............01/26/13.............121.6.................160.0 
...............02/02/13.............121.1.................161.3 
...............02/09/13.............121.0.................160.5 
...............02/16/13.............120.8.................157.3 
...............02/23/13.............120.5.................149.7 
...............03/02/13.............121.3.................155.0 
...............03/09/13.............122.7.................162.8 



.........................................---28 week avg---........---Daily (Raw)---......Daily 
................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n........Prod'n.....Cons'n......Food 
...............02/12/13.............121.1.......159.5..........2.074.......39.41.......61265 
...............02/13/13.............121.0.......159.1..........2.045.......39.43.......61126 
...............02/14/13.............121.0.......158.2..........2.102.......39.43.......59492 
...............02/15/13.............121.0.......157.7..........2.095.......40.91.......54597 
...............02/16/13.............120.9.......157.3..........2.033.......41.51.......58902 
...............02/17/13.............120.8.......156.4..........2.034.......41.51.......58828 
...............02/18/13.............120.6.......155.4..........2.020.......41.21.......59934 
...............02/19/13.............120.4.......154.2..........2.037.......40.71.......58128 
...............02/20/13.............120.4.......152.9..........1.997.......39.74.......56960 
...............02/21/13.............120.4.......151.5..........2.028.......40.04.......56878 
...............02/22/13.............120.5.......150.1..........2.072.......39.05.......55019 
...............02/23/13.............120.6.......149.7..........2.071.......41.35.......54459 
...............02/24/13.............120.7.......149.5..........2.075.......41.35.......54255 
...............02/25/13.............120.9.......149.3..........2.075.......41.05.......56050 
...............02/26/13.............121.1.......149.6..........2.083.......44.50.......56401 
...............02/27/13.............121.1.......149.6..........2.037.......42.05.......48727 
...............02/28/13.............121.1.......149.8..........2.109.......46.88.......46141 
...............03/01/13.............121.2.......151.2..........2.041.......49.32.......59032 
...............03/02/13.............121.4.......153.1..........2.092.......53.00.......60062 
...............03/03/13.............121.6.......155.0..........2.116.......53.00.......59844 
...............03/04/13.............121.8.......156.4..........2.113.......46.50.......59932 
...............03/05/13.............122.0.......157.7..........2.162.......45.95.......59694 
...............03/06/13.............122.2.......159.1..........2.126.......46.95.......60503i 
...............03/07/13.............122.4.......159.9..........2.124.......42.00.......58229i 
...............03/08/13.............122.6.......160.7..........2.147.......42.50.......59152i 
...............03/09/13.............122.7.......162.8..........2.048.......48.57.......60850i 
...............03/10/13.............122.8.......165.3..........2.059i......52.57i......59161i 
...............03/11/13.............122.9.......167.7..........2.037i......52.77i......61774i 
...............03/12/13.............123.0.......169.0..........2.072i......45.16i......59627i 
...............03/13/13.............123.2i......169.7i..........2.106i......44.16i......60648i 
...............03/14/13................n/a...........n/a...............n/a.......39.36i......56542i