Expect volatility, exit your losses. Value your profits. Come in late to the trade and you can get put in a hole real quick. Hold a loser, the hole gets deeper. It is why past weeks you saw me post --I am in D side or exiting U side. Yes monthly runs occur, and yes hold them. But these need strong evidence on forward forecasts and current forecasts. Consider secondary how your trade is timed to the season but never use fixed calendar dates. NG -- It is all about current over-supply, current demand, available production. Short term rig count has no effect, a glacier change effect.
It may be rewarding to take the profit on a recent D trade and the past two bounce runs on HNU which I projected and posted in advance. However we see a declining top price on HNU month over month Nov through to Jan. This will again occur in Feb and bets are on this could be Feb 1st to Feb 5th as the high.
I definitely will be a D holder shortly and well may just hold position into March. My short term U-trade is one of taking benchmark 5% to 12% max profits whether Thursday or Fri. I will not risk trade over weekend. I can see multiple cities which are key to my decisions, temps change, no stop needed as one can figure out what will happen or see price action. Better right decision beforehand than later when trading NG.
A rally post report shows this can improve from current into Friday as market fills demand for future short term weekend possibilities, thus short term volatility. I am not fixated on the U trade, I saw the unexciting report, so forward week D may on returning warm air rise 10% - 15% a week Friday off a low, so will be fading in to D trade.
We are 7 weeks from spring. GLTA Cheers Manxcan