Last week I was upfront that I would trade a D move expected. One looks for a short term correction or attempts to position for an inevitable change in direction of trend possibly lasting multiple weeks = thus a matter of choice.
When to buy and sell NG. Today, it is difficult to position an entry on a stong drop in the NG spot price as we have here. However currently, I do see a potential change in weather.developing to assist the U price. Continued winter demand prevails only when it is apparent it will move back in to the US NE region.
The problem is one must see that in upper central US. The demand on NG is driven by demand in large demomgraphic regions. A weather change in South Dakota has little effect if this does not move east and south with dramatic effect.
I believe a trade on HNU is warranted at $11.30 - $11.40, which should be in the money come Wed. The trade is very volatile as you appreciate. This is typical intra week volatilty, not yet a fixed trend direction on D side, which is definite for Feb. It does not appear intra week a price entry of $11.50 will cause trouble other than being mad you did not wait for a better price entry.
GLTA, Cheers manxcan
Matter of choice -- buy D sooner or later, here a trade for price upswing on potential increase in demand short term. No sense in bashing anyone on U / D trades. It really comes down to how one sees the trade --how long ones view is of the potential forward price.