RM, first of all I would not advise anyone to look for advice from me... :)
I am still long because of two reasons... first, the market gapped against me pre-hours, second, I am not yet convinced of the bear case. I am still seeing the weather as unstable. The forecasts look ridiculous, the monthly ones change almost daily, sometimes in a drastic way. This means to me they are worthless.
It seems the boyz were predominantly short last week and I think they want to cover. It's still winter, isn't it? This is my explanation of the drop in pre-hours, low volume, and overall the yo-yo behaviour of the ETFs during the last weeks. Look at the daily charts for HNU/HND... They are gapping up and down like never before.
So, my (self-imposed by my lack of discipline) bet right now is mildly bullish. I would be on the fence for a short covering this week. If the weather forecasts stabilize somehow, maybe I will get some help from that.
I am thinking of setting some stops below today's lows, but stops are so hopeless with these gaps...