Daily Gas Flows (Comments) 

.....NATGAS: With all significant actuals in, EIA-weighted storage modeling stands thus far at a draw of 82 BCF (to be reported .....thursday by the EIA. Capacity/Gas-Flow modeling (which came in at 77 BCF) undercuts the EIA modeling now that we are .....testing withdrawals, as the implied EIA-skew gets shoved the other way until spring. This Thursdays EIA number is a big, big .....test for the EIA-weighted modeling assumptions of a skew, and if the EIA follows the roadmap that the EIA-weighted modeling .....implies, we are going to get some strange numbers from the EIA when the polar air comes. 

.....Baseline for last week was a draw of 79 BCF, splitting the difference between the two methodologies and suggesting a neutral .....week. In my own thinking, I am highly uncertain of how the skew plays out Thursday, and thus have low confidence in the .....storage modeling's accuracy and would assume a greater risk of a miss (either way) Thursday. 



.....OIL: Will not have anything to comment on for a while as patterns that were being watched broke down and have yet to re-emerge. The .....raw data will continue to be posted on the chance that someone else (with better insight than I) may be able to see something in it. 

Natgas scheduling to refineries... 
...................................Scheduling 
...................Day........... (MMCF) 
...............11/03/12.(w)......419 
...............11/04/12.(w)......417 
...............11/05/12............413 
...............11/06/12............465 
...............11/07/12............400 
...............11/08/12............430 
...............11/09/12............433 

...............11/10/12.(w)......415 
...............11/11/12.(w)......452 
...............11/12/12............468 
...............11/13/12............467 
...............11/14/12............441 
...............11/15/12............425 
...............11/16/12............416 

...............11/17/12.(w)......387 
...............11/18/12.(w)......383 
...............11/19/12............377 
...............11/20/12............381 
...............11/21/12............371 
...............11/22/12............390 
...............11/23/12............392 

...............11/24/12.(w)......391 
...............11/25/12.(w)......390 
...............11/26/12............369 
...............11/27/12............410i 
...............11/28/12............403i 
...............11/29/12............425i 
...............11/30/12............423i 

...............12/01/12.(w)......426i 
...............12/02/12.(w)......422i 

...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday) 



.....ECONOMICS & POLITICS: We are now in the procrastinating hands of government, waiting to see the public reaction .....within the dense fog of the foot-dragging. The economy is now essentially in a vacuum with only emotion and the randomness .....of the nightly news to descide its destiny. Anything can happen between now and January 1st! 


Todays economic numbers... 

...............Weeklies.....Production........Consumption 
...............09/15/12.............121.3.................150.2 
...............09/22/12.............121.1.................149.7 
...............09/29/12.............121.6.................147.0 
...............10/06/12.............122.1.................142.7 
...............10/13/12.............122.3.................142.2 
...............10/20/12.............122.2.................144.4 
...............10/27/12.............121.3.................147.3 
...............11/03/12.............120.5.................151.7 
...............11/10/12.............118.9.................150.2 
...............11/17/12.............118.3.................151.0 
...............11/24/12.............117.3r................152.6 
...............12/01/12.............117.4.................151.7 

.........................................---28 week avg---........---Daily (Raw)---......Daily 
................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n........Prod'n.....Cons'n......Food 
...............11/02/12.............120.7.......150.7..........1.849.......36.51......39437 
...............11/03/12.............120.5.......151.7..........1.877.......39.01......40309 
...............11/04/12.............120.3.......152.6..........1.864.......39.01......41743 
...............11/05/12.............120.0.......152.0..........1.834.......29.01......39895 
...............11/06/12.............119.8.......151.4..........1.892.......29.01......39229 
...............11/07/12.............119.6.......151.0..........1.838.......28.21......39504.........(Presidential Election Day Before) 
...............11/08/12.............119.3.......150.5..........1.887.......28.21......39575 
...............11/09/12.............119.1.......149.9..........1.908.......28.21......39785 
...............11/10/12.............118.9.......150.2..........1.921.......36.61......40975 
...............11/11/12.............118.8.......150.3..........1.954.......34.91......40761 
...............11/12/12.............118.6.......150.4..........1.947.......34.91......39535 
...............11/13/12.............118.6.......149.8..........1.983.......32.49......40327 
...............11/14/12.............118.6.......150.0..........1.985.......35.40......39251 
...............11/15/12.............118.5.......150.4..........1.908.......35.40......41097 
...............11/16/12.............118.5.......150.8..........1.926.......35.40......39977 
...............11/17/12.............118.3.......151.0..........1.902r......35.80......40017 
...............11/18/12.............118.1.......150.9..........1.900r......35.80......39878 
...............11/19/12.............117.9.......150.9..........1.894r......35.80......38856 
...............11/20/12.............117.8.......151.4..........1.995r......37.59......40139 
...............11/21/12.............117.7.......151.7..........1.970r......37.14......40270 
...............11/22/12.............117.5.......152.2..........1.939.......37.62......42633 
...............11/23/12.............117.4.......152.5..........1.934.......37.62......40860 
...............11/24/12.............117.4.......152.6..........1.929.......37.62......41288 
...............11/25/12.............117.3.......152.2..........1.930.......37.62......42376 
...............11/26/12.............117.2.......151.9..........1.913.......38.60......42549 
...............11/27/12.............117.1.......152.0..........2.008.......36.44......46886 
...............11/28/12.............117.1.......151.9..........1.986i......41.93i......42081i 
...............11/29/12.............117.2.......152.4..........2.020i......43.00i......37278i 
...............11/30/12.............117.4.......152.5..........2.027i......38.84i......41033i 
...............12/01/12.............117.4.......151.7..........1.973i......35.76i......49439i 
...............12/02/12.............117.5i......151.1i..........1.971i......35.76i......49540i