As previously mentioned, the news/media/analysts will play it the way that the MM's need it to play out.   NG will be over $4 by xmas on further weather related stories and production cut stories, recovery rate stories and whatever else the majors require to further provide NG support.  Remember that $4 NG is still unbelievable cheap and not sustainable so I say $5 NG is more normal price without harming the weak economy and still providing the quality NG/oil jobs.