I totally agree that withdrawals can quickly eat up supplies. And also agree that over half the rigs have stopped drilling for natgas or have switched over to more profitable oil. But on the other hand, that means they do have an option to switch back over to drilling natgas if they a forecast of increase in demand is expected, or if there are sudden shocks, and as you mentioned, if the other half of rigs start drilling NG again, how fast do you think it'll make up for those withdrawals? Reason for the decrease in rigs is because surplus storage has almost hit its peak and can't store anymore even if they wanted to. The only way I see NG going up at all is if there is an unsustainable increase in demand. But who knows, its a manipulated commodity in the end!  I do like your insights though.