Good call, agree.....I feel the same way, seems that the first few days of my NG plays are terrible and thats why I always take small position at first, usually 1/3 of intended position and then add accordingly and thus far I have done quite well.  Past 3 mths saw some serious red on NG plays but each time I managed to squeeze out a decent profit.  On another note Rob, did you take that PWT position that I mentioned about a week ago....It ran up nicely yesterday and I got out near the high.  I will inbox you another possible pick if you like.