Daily Gas Flows (Comments) 

.....NATGAS: EIA-weighted storage modeling says a draw of 7 BCF for last week's mildness, while capacity / gas-flow modeling .....flow modeling says the draw was 4 BCF. Baseline for last week was for an injection of 5 BCF, making for a bullish draw of .....12 BCF to-the-bullish (EIA-weighted) or 9 BCF to-the-bullish (Capacity/Gas-Flow). 

.....The two divergent methodologies finally came into line last week as key salt activity (which the EIA-Weighted modeling has .....chosen to drastically over-estimate) saw little change. 


.....OIL: Will not have anything to comment on for a while as patterns that were being watched broke down and have yet to re-emerge. The 
.....raw data will continue to be posted on the chance that someone else (with better insight than I) may be able to see something in it. 

Natgas scheduling to refineries... 
...................................Scheduling.......Disruptions 
...................Day........... (MMCF)............(MMCF) 
...............10/27/12.(w)......462.......................0 
...............10/28/12.(w)......447.......................0 
...............10/29/12............458.......................0 
...............10/30/12............490.......................0 
...............10/31/12............424.......................0 
...............11/01/12............416.......................0 
...............11/02/12............404.......................0 

...............11/03/12.(w)......419.......................0 
...............11/04/12.(w)......417.......................0 
...............11/05/12............413.......................0 
...............11/06/12............465.......................0 
...............11/07/12............400.......................0 
...............11/08/12............430.......................0 
...............11/09/12............433.......................0 

...............11/10/12.(w)......415.......................0 
...............11/11/12.(w)......452.......................0 
...............11/12/12............468.......................0 
...............11/13/12............467.......................0 
...............11/14/12............441.......................0 
...............11/15/12............425r......................0 
...............11/16/12............416r......................0 

...............11/17/12.(w)......393.......................0 
...............11/18/12.(w)......389.......................0 
...............11/19/12............379......................0 
...............11/20/12............383.......................0 
...............11/21/12............373.......................0 
...............11/22/12............392.......................0 
...............11/23/12............393i......................0 

...............11/24/12.(w)......392i......................0 
...............11/25/12.(w)......391i......................0 
...............11/26/12............370i......................0 
...............11/27/12............400i......................0 

...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday) 



.....ECONOMICS & POLITICS: Both industrial production and consumer modeling continues to plod along with great support 
.....under the surface (steel-scheduling remains very hot for durable-goods, while building-materials are blistering-hot and at 
.....multi-year highs. The economy appears ready for some serious expansion... as long as 1: Government can come together 
.....quickly on fiscal negotiations, and 2: the press doesn't find a dark shadow under the silver cloud of the eventual deal and 
.....scare consumers into recession. 

.....However, I have a strong sense of déjà vu right now... last year we had the same seeds of expansion and a red-hot Christmas- 
.....shopping season before Congress sent its infamous "$20-a-week-payroll-tax-increase" in January the day before gas-flows 
.....collapsed (consumers listened), and even when Congress finally scurried in the weeks following to wright the wrong, the 
.....damage was done and the momentum irreversibly lost. 

.....Personally, I am hoping that the deal is getting done secretly now and gets announced December 1st, the press (and public) 
.....gets pleasantly surprised, and the economy reflects with a boom. 

.....If the Republicans and Democrats wait 'til midnight 12/31... January-2012 gets revisited. 

Todays economic numbers... 

...............Weeklies.....Production........Consumption 
...............09/15/12.............121.3.................150.2 
...............09/22/12.............121.1.................149.7 
...............09/29/12.............121.6.................147.0 
...............10/06/12.............122.1.................142.7 
...............10/13/12.............122.3.................142.2 
...............10/20/12.............122.2.................144.4 
...............10/27/12.............121.3.................147.3 
...............11/03/12.............120.5.................151.7 
...............11/10/12.............118.9.................150.2 
...............11/17/12.............118.3.................151.0 
...............11/24/12.............117.4.................152.6 

.........................................---28 week avg---........---Daily (Raw)---......Daily 
................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n........Prod'n.....Cons'n......Food 
...............10/28/12.............121.1.......147.9..........1.908.......36.44......42915 
...............10/29/12.............121.0.......148.6..........1.915.......36.24......42683.........(Hurricane Sandy strikes East Coast) 
...............10/30/12.............121.1.......148.8..........1.988.......31.80......33188 
...............10/31/12.............121.0.......149.6..........1.892.......37.63......37300 
...............11/01/12.............120.9.......150.0..........1.863.......35.51......40623 
...............11/02/12.............120.7.......150.7..........1.849.......36.51......39437 
...............11/03/12.............120.5.......151.7..........1.877.......39.01......40309 
...............11/04/12.............120.3.......152.6..........1.864.......39.01......41743 
...............11/05/12.............120.0.......152.0..........1.834.......29.01......39895 
...............11/06/12.............119.8.......151.4..........1.892.......29.01......39229 
...............11/07/12.............119.6.......151.0..........1.838.......28.21......39504.........(Presidential Election Day Before) 
...............11/08/12.............119.3.......150.5..........1.887.......28.21......39575 
...............11/09/12.............119.1.......149.9..........1.908.......28.21......39785 
...............11/10/12.............118.9.......150.2..........1.921.......36.61......40975 
...............11/11/12.............118.8.......150.3..........1.954.......34.91......40761 
...............11/12/12.............118.6.......150.4..........1.947.......34.91......39535 
...............11/13/12.............118.6.......149.8..........1.983.......32.49......40327 
...............11/14/12.............118.6.......150.0..........1.985.......35.40......39251 
...............11/15/12.............118.5.......150.4..........1.908r......35.40......41097 
...............11/16/12.............118.5.......150.8..........1.926.......35.40......39977 
...............11/17/12.............118.3.......151.0..........1.908.......35.80......40017 
...............11/18/12.............118.1.......150.9..........1.905.......35.80......39878 
...............11/19/12.............117.9.......150.9..........1.895.......35.80......38856 
...............11/20/12.............117.8.......151.4..........1.997.......37.59r.....40139 
...............11/21/12.............117.7.......151.7..........1.972.......37.14r.....40270 
...............11/22/12.............117.5.......152.2..........1.941i......37.62i......42633i 
...............11/23/12.............117.4.......152.5..........1.934i......37.62i......40860i 
...............11/24/12.............117.4.......152.6..........1.930i......37.62i......41288i 
...............11/25/12.............117.3.......152.2..........1.929i......37.62i......42376i 
...............11/26/12.............117.2i......151.9i..........1.901i......38.60i......40363i 
...............11/27/12................n/a...........n/a..............n/a........37.42i......45229i 
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