Daily Gas Flows  - US Storage

(Best viewed at 14 pixel "Font Size", "Fixed Width" as set from the "My IV" Link) 
(See post 428 for footnotes & explanations of the various models) 

============US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)============= 
...Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------.......---Wkly EIA---.....Baseline 
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___ Model__Actual__(Neutral) 
08/17/12......7.0......9.0......8.5......5.9......5.4......5.7......5.5......47.0..........46..........47............58 
08/24/12......8.9....12.0....11.6......9.9......7.9......8.1......7.5......66.0..........66..........66............76 
08/31/12......6.0......8.1......6.5......2.0......0.7......2.1......2.5......28.0..........27..........28............50 
09/07/12......4.3......7.3......7.3......5.1......1.2......0.6......1.3......27.0..........24..........27............58 
09/14/12......5.6....10.8....11.5......9.7......9.9......9.9......9.5......67.0..........67..........67............90 
09/21/12....11.8....13.8....13.4....11.2......9.8....10.5......9.7......80.0..........80..........80............89 
09/28/12....12.1....11.4....10.4....12.0....11.6......9.8......9.7......77.0..........70..........77............83 
10/05/12....10.5....11.7....10.7....10.6......9.4....11.2......8.0......72.0..........72..........72............90 
10/12/12......7.6......9.1......8.0......6.8......6.6......6.9......6.0......51.0..........53..........51............42 
10/19/12......7.6....13.0....10.3....10.2......8.6......8.8......8.4......67.0..........67..........67............66 
10/26/12......8.8....10.2......9.1....11.3......8.5....10.0......7.1......65.0..........67..........65............74 
11/02/12......5.3......6.3......5.3......2.2......1.2......1.5.....-0.8......21.0..........20..........21............14 
11/09/12......0.4......1.2......0.1.....-4.3....-4.8.....-6.2.....-4.4.....-17.0........-28.........-18...........-33 
11/16/12.....-0.5......2.0....-0.2.....-6.2.....-9.7.....-8.8....-7.8.....-30.0.........-34.........-31.(C)....-29 
11/23/12.....-4.2....-1.4.....-1.0.....-0.5.....-2.1......0.7......1.1......-7.5i..........-7i............................5 
11/30/12.....-6.5i..-10.4i....-6.6i....-7.4i....-5.0i.....1.4i.....1.6i....-32.9i........-33i............................. 
Estimated EIA-Weekly based storage (As of 11/27/12).......3830 BCF 
...........................................................(As of 11/27/11).......3864 BCF...(34 BCF YOY Deficit) 
......(C) For purposes of analysis, the 7 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been deducted to the EIA's originally-reported 38 BCF withdrawal estimate. 



====Estimate of Operationally Available Working Gas Storage Capacity (in BCF)==== 
..................(Prepared from information for gas week ended 11/16/12) 
___________Data Sample___________________Capacity___Inventory__%Full___ 
Publicly available data................................................1920.............1761.........91.7 
EIA-Reported data (100% of US Storage)..................4218(e).........3873.........91.7(e) 
......(e).Estimate of Capacity calculated as 3873 / (1761/1920) = 4218 

=======================================================Past.Weekly.Runs======================================================= 
...Injecting.........Withdrawing.......Injecting.........Withdrawing........Injecting.........Withdrawing.......Injecting.........Withdrawing........Injecting.........Withdrawing........Injecting.........Withdrawing.......Injecting.........Withdrawing........Injecting.........Withdrawing.........Injecting.........Withdrawing 
___2004________2004/5_______2005________2005/6________2006________2006/7_______2007________2007/8________2008________2008/9________2009_______2009/10_______2010________2010/11_______2011_______2011/12________2012_______2011/12__
...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................03/20..4266...............................03/19..4200.................................................................................03/16..4101.........................
..................................................04/01..3709.................................................................................03/30..3852..................................................................................03/27..4308...............................03/26..4157.................................................................................03/23..4094.........................
..................................................04/08..3715...............................04/07..3499...............................04/06..3855..................................................................................04/03..4315...............................04/02..4152.................................................................................03/30..4107.........................
..................................................04/15..3683...............................04/14..3493...............................04/13..3877...............................04/11...3829...............................04/10..4296...............................04/09..4099...............................04/08..4331...............................04/06..4130.........................
..................................................04/22..3632...............................04/21..3494...............................04/20..3920...............................04/18...3801...............................04/17..4262...............................04/16..4060...............................04/15..4285...............................04/13..4100.........................
..................................................04/29..3593...............................04/28..3481......10/27..3664......04/27..3853...............................04/25...3758...............................04/24..4189...............................04/23..4049...............................04/22..4246...............................04/20..4065.........................
..................................................05/06..3569...............................05/05..3479......11/03..3673......05/04..3802...............................05/02...3730...............................05/01..4143...............................04/30..4042...............................04/29..4230...............................04/27..4044.........................
.........................11/12..3480......05/13..3550...............................05/12..3473......11/10..3680......05/11..3746......11/09..3799......05/09...3722...............................05/08..4108...............................05/07..4022......11/05..4131......05/06..4208...............................05/04..4014.........................
.........................11/19..3486......05/20..3512......11/18..3471......05/19..3467......11/17..3663......05/18..3702......11/16..3792......05/16...3705...............................05/15..4086...............................05/14..4008......11/12..4138......05/13..4158...............................05/11..3989......11/09..4214
.........................11/26..3481......05/27..3496......11/25..3474......05/26..3474......11/24..3666......05/25..3677......11/23..3792......05/23...3712......11/21..3837......05/22..4044...............................05/21..4007......11/19..4121......05/20..4127...............................05/18..3985......11/16..4218
.........................12/03..3496......06/03..3447......12/02..3475......06/02..3466......12/01..3665......06/01..3647......11/30..3791......05/30...3704......11/28..3855......05/29..4037...............................05/28..4011......11/26..4124......05/27..4106......11/25..4085......05/25..4007 
.........................12/10..3486......06/10..3472......12/09..3464......06/09..3457......12/08..3656......06/08..3612......12/07..3803......06/06...3682......12/05..3867......06/05..3980......12/04..4045......06/04..3992......12/03..4090......06/03..4080......12/02..4094......06/01..3984 
.........................12/17..3485......06/17..3399......12/16..3462......06/16..3452......12/15..3642......06/15..3568......12/14..3810......06/13...3692......12/12..3854......06/12..3966......12/11..4031......06/11..3990......12/10..4111......06/10..4040......12/09..4075......06/08..3972 
.........................12/24..3501......06/24..3400......12/23..3453......06/23..3469......12/22..3630......06/22..3574......12/21..3825......06/20...3663......12/19..3836......06/19..3949......12/18..4029......06/18..3984......12/17..4118......06/17..4019......12/16..4077......06/15..3966 
.........................12/31..3509......07/01..3459......12/30..3453......06/30..3475......12/29..3620......06/29..3574......12/28..3829......06/27...3636......12/26..3841......06/26..3935......12/25..4055......06/25..3974......12/24..4128......06/24..3986......12/23..4062......06/22..3927 
.........................01/07..3468......07/08..3448......01/06..3484......07/07..3463......01/05..3629......07/06..3584......01/04..3832......07/04...3635......01/02..3832......07/03..3918......01/01..4045......07/02..3963......12/31..4123......07/01..3966......12/30..4055......06/29..3920 
.........................01/14..3449......07/15..3439......01/13..3469......07/14..3474......01/12..3629......07/13..3576......01/11..3824......07/11...3634......01/09..3853......07/10..3913......01/08..4074......07/09..3976......01/07..4143......07/08..3959......01/06..4060......07/06..3958 
.........................01/21....n/a.......07/22..3444......01/20..3476......07/21..3475......01/19....n/a.......07/20..3579......01/18..3844......07/18...3631......01/16..3883......07/17..3912......01/15..4072......07/16..3973......01/14..4144......07/15..3952......01/13..4068......07/13..3961 
.........................01/28..3493......07/29..3434......01/27..3453......07/28..3474......01/26..3659......07/27..3566......01/25..3845......07/25...3612......01/23..3910......07/24..3911......01/22..4059......07/23..3964......01/21..4138......07/22..3953......01/20..4090......07/20..3962 
.........................02/04..3506......08/05..3427......02/03..3443......08/04..3461......02/02..3681......08/03..3611......02/01..3881......08/01...3600......01/30..3933......07/31..3914......01/29..4082......07/30..3946......01/28..4148......07/29..3945......01/27..4090......07/27..3973 
.........................02/11..3504......08/12..3419......02/10..3456......08/11..3458......02/09..3703......08/10..3620......02/08..3838......08/08...3596......02/06..3957......08/07..3906......02/05..4079......08/06..3930......02/04..4157......08/05..3923......02/03..4086......08/03..3974 
.........................02/18..3507......08/19..3413......02/17..3471......08/18..3451......02/16..3717......08/17..3613......02/15..3852......08/15...3574......02/13..4031......08/14..3907......02/12..4099......08/13..3915......02/11..4163......08/12..3907......02/10..4078......08/10..3994 
.........................02/25..3519......08/26..3396......02/24..3459......08/25..3455......02/23..3768......08/24..3607......02/22..3859......08/22...3586......02/20..4090......08/21..3870......02/19..4100......08/20..3904......02/18..4175......08/19..3898......02/17..4067......08/17..4006 
.........................03/04..3582......09/02..3406......03/03..3476......09/01..3465......03/02..3804......08/31..3608......02/29..3886......08/29...3589......02/27..4184......08/28..3872......02/26..4127......08/27..3913......02/25..4208......08/26..3899......02/24..4074......08/24..4008 
.........................03/11..3621......09/09..3408......03/10..3487......09/08..3488......03/09..3867......09/07..3608......03/07..3878......09/05...3615......03/06..4278......09/04..3881......03/05..4191......09/03..3933......03/04..4226......09/02..3899......03/02..4089......08/31..4017 
.........................03/18..3678......09/16..3411......03/17..3504......09/15..3519......03/16..3863......09/14..3639......03/14..3872......09/12...3641......03/13..4245......09/11..3898......03/12..4189......09/10..3956......03/11..4262......09/09..3918......03/09..4106......09/07..4031 
.........................03/25..3699......09/23..3435......03/24..3523......09/22..3542......03/23..3889......09/21..3651......03/21..3847......09/19...3661...............................09/18..3912...............................09/17..3970......03/18..4266......09/16..3926...............................09/14..4048 
10/01..3421...............................09/30..3456......03/31..3513......09/29..3567...............................09/28..3667......03/28..3837......09/26...3705...............................09/25..3934...............................09/24..4003......03/25..4287......09/23..3937...............................09/21..4059 
10/08..3428...............................10/07..3459...............................10/06..3588...............................10/05..3686......04/04..3861......10/03...3719...............................10/02..3943...............................10/01..4024......04/01..4345......09/30..3952...............................09/28..4084 
10/15..3442...............................10/14..3457...............................10/13..3609...............................10/12..3700...............................10/10...3733...............................10/09..3969...............................10/08..4037...............................10/07..3985...............................10/05..4098 
10/22..3451...............................10/21..3455...............................10/20..3628**............................10/19..3723...............................10/17...3768...............................10/16..3996...............................10/15..4074...............................10/14..4013...............................10/12..4131 
10/29..3475...............................10/28..3469.................................................................................10/26..3751...............................10/24...3795...............................10/23..4025...............................10/22..4089...............................10/21..4036...............................10/19..4145 
11/05..3482**............................11/04..3488.................................................................................11/02..3779**............................10/31...3814...............................10/30..4028...............................10/29..4106**............................10/28..4072...............................10/26..4166 
..................................................11/11..3474**................................................................................................................................11/07...3826...............................11/06..4028.................................................................................11/04..4111...............................11/02..4186 
........................................................................................................................................................................................................11/14...3828**............................11/13..4036.................................................................................11/11..4105.................................................. 
...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................11/20..4034.................................................................................11/18..4095**............................................... 
...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................11/27..4050**................................................................................................................................................... 
**= Best Estimate 



====Past Weekly Runs vs EIA (Best Model Bracketed)===== 
................For Week...........Wkly....Wkly...Interpolated 
__Run____Ending______Model__ EIA__EIA.Monthly 
10/20/10..(10/15/10)..............83.......93..........95.5 
11/27/10..(10/22/10)..............67.......71..........73.5 
11/03/10..(10/29/10)..............55.......67..........69.5 
11/10/10..(11/05/10)..............14.......19..........19.2 
11/17/10..(11/12/10)................4........-5...........-5.7 
11/24/10..(11/19/10)................0........-7...........-7.7 
12/01/10..(11/26/10).............-20......-23.........-23.7 
12/08/10..(12/03/10).............-85......-89.........-90.1 
12/15/10..(12/10/10)...........-161....-164.......-165.7 
12/22/10..(12/17/10)...........-188....-184.......-185.7 
12/29/10..(12/24/10)...........-142....-136.......-137.7 
01/05/11..(12/31/10)...........-128....-135.......-136.7 
01/12/11..(01/07/11)...........-146....-138.......-138.2 
01/19/11..(01/14/11)...........-236....-243.......-243.2 
01/26/11..(01/21/11)...........-169....-164 (A).-164.2 
02/02/11..(01/28/11)...........-184....-189.......-189.2 
02/09/11..(02/04/11)...........-217....-209.......-210.0 
02/16/11..(02/11/11)...........-267....-233.......-234.6 
02/23/11..(02/18/11).............-86......-81.........-82.6 
03/02/11..(02/25/11).............-83......-85.........-86.6 
03/09/11..(03/04/11).............-71......-71.........-73.7 
03/16/11..(03/11/11).............-41......-56.........-59.6 
03/23/11..(03/18/11)...............-7........-6...........-9.6 
03/30/11..(03/25/11)............... 6.......12............8.4 
04/06/11..(04/01/11).............-49......-45.........-47.2 
04/13/11..(04/08/11)..............24.......28..........34.1 
04/20/11..(04/15/11)..............42.......47..........53.1 
04/27/11..(04/22/11)..............19.......31..........37.1 
05/04/11..(04/29/11)..............55.......72..........78.1 
05/11/11..(05/06/11)..............60.......70..........73.4 
05/18/11..(05/13/11)..............80.......92..........94.9 
05/25/11..(05/20/11)..............89.....105........107.9 
06/01/11..(05/27/11)..............79.......83..........85.9 
06/08/11..(06/03/11)..............68.......80 
06/15/11..(06/10/11)..............64.......69 
06/22/11..(06/17/11)..............90.......98 
06/29/11..(06/24/11)..............71.......78 
07/06/11..(07/01/11)..............84.......95 
07/13/11..(07/08/11)..............81.......84 
07/20/11..(07/15/11)..............51.......60 
07/27/11..(07/22/11)..............30.......43 
08/03/11..(07/29/11)..............30.......44 
08/10/11..(08/05/11)..............25.......25 
08/17/11..(08/12/11)..............50.......50 
08/24/11..(08/19/11)..............83.......73 
08/31/11..(08/26/11)..............62.......55 
09/07/11..(09/02/11)..............69.......64 
09/14/11..(09/09/11)..............92.......87 
09/21/11..(09/16/11)..............95.......89 
09/28/11..(09/23/11)............117.....111 
10/05/11..(09/30/11)..............96.......97 
10/12/11..(10/07/11)............109.....112 
10/19/11..(10/14/11)............104.....103 
10/26/11..(10/21/11)..............90.......92 
11/02/11..(10/28/11)..............68.......78 
11/08/11..(11/04/11)..............30.......37 
11/15/11..(11/11/11)..............22.......12 
11/22/11..(11/18/11)..............18.........9 
11/30/11..(11/25/11)..............12........-1 
12/07/11..(12/02/11).............-10......-20 
12/14/11..(12/09/11).............-94....-102 
12/21/11..(12/16/11).............-95....-100 
12/27/11..(12/23/11).............-82......-81..(early run) 
01/25/12..(12/23/11).............-85......-81..(post-vacation backrun) 
01/25/12..(12/30/11).............-74......-76..(post-vacation backrun) 
01/25/12..(01/06/12)...........-105......-95..(post-vacation backrun) 
01/25/12..(01/13/12).............-86......-87..(post-vacation backrun) 
01/25/12..(01/20/12)...........-192....-192 
02/01/12..(01/27/12)...........-125....-132 
02/08/12..(02/03/12).............-81......-78 
02/14/12..(02/10/12)...........-115....-127 
02/22/12..(02/17/12)...........-177....-166 
02/29/12..(02/24/12).............-96......-82 
03/07/12..(03/02/12).............-91......-80 
03/14/12..(03/09/12).............-68......-64 
03/21/12..(03/16/12)..............14.......11 
03/28/12..(03/23/12)..............56.......50 R 
04/04/12..(03/30/12)..............33.......42 
04/11/12..(04/06/12)..............11.......16 R (B) 
04/18/12..(04/13/12)..............24.......23 R 
04/25/12..(04/20/12)..............35.......47 
04/28/12..(04/27/12)..............19.9....28..(Friday-night run)(before leaving for vacation) 
04/28/12..(04/27/12)..............23.0....28..(Friday-night Subjective "Best guess") 
05/09/12..(05/04/12)..............25.......30 
05/16/12..(05/11/12)..............47.......61 
05/23/12..(05/18/12)..............66.......77 
05/30/12..(05/25/12)..............62.......71 
06/06/12..(06/01/12)..............52.......62 

............................................Old.......New 
.........................................4-Year....52-Wk 
................For Week...........Wkly......Wkly.....Wkly..Interpolated 
__Run____Ending______Model__ Model__ EIA__EIA.Monthly 
06/12/12..(06/08/12)..........{66.4}......73.4........67 
06/20/12..(06/15/12)..........{66.1}......67.7........62 
06/29/12..(06/22/12)..........{56.0}......60.0........57 

................For Week...........Wkly....Wkly...Interpolated 
__Run____Ending______Model__ EIA__EIA.Monthly 
07/05/12..(06/29/12)..............40.......39 
07/12/12..(07/06/12)..............n/a......33 
07/19/12..(07/13/12)..............28.......28 
07/25/12..(07/20/12)..............25.......26 
08/01/12..(07/27/12)..............21.......28 
08/06/12..(08/03/12)..............30.......24 
08/15/12..(08/10/12)..............26.......20 
08/21/12..(08/17/12)..............47.......47 
08/28/12..(08/24/12)..............69.......66 
09/05/12..(08/31/12)..............27.......28 
09/12/12..(09/07/12)..............22.......27 
09/19/12..(09/14/12)..............66.......67 
09/26/12..(09/21/12)..............73.......80 
10/03/12..(09/28/12)..............66.......77 
10/11/12..(10/05/12)..............71.......72 
10/16/12..(10/12/12)..............52.......51 
10/23/12..(10/19/12)..............66.......67 
10/31/12..(10/26/12)..............67.......65 
11/07/12..(11/02/12)..............18.......21 
11/14/12..(11/09/12).............-30.....-18.................................(12 BCF miss in US-eastern region..... 35 withdrawal Wkly Model vs 23 withdrawal EIA) 
11/20/12..(11/16/12).............-34.....-31.(C) 

Notes (On above): 
......(A) For purposes of analysis, the 10 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been removed from the EIA's originally-reported 174 BCF withdrawal estimate. 
......(B) For purposes of analysis, the 10 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been re-added to the EIA's originally-reported 8 BCF injection estimate. 
......(C) For purposes of analysis, the 7 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been deducted to the EIA's originally-reported 38 BCF withdrawal estimate. 



Weekly Models: 
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions. 
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the 
...................................... methodology employed by the EIA, using a 4-year rolling history of the 
.......................................EIA's weekly data. 

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from my own Daily & Weekly 
..............................models, the EIA's Weekly & Monthly actuals, and the old AGA & Derived EIA 
..............................weeklies. Initially, my own model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) 
..............................are presented; followed by the EIA weekly actuals (Interpolated by the daily 
..............................model), followed by the EIA monthly actuals (Interpolated successively by way 
..............................of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered 
..............................reclassifications & adjustments removed. 

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report 
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary 
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.