Daily Gas Flows (Comments) 2 

.....NATGAS: All actuals in, everything done. EIA-weighted storage modeling remains a draw of 34 BCF, while capacity / gas- .....flow modeling stays at a draw of 44 BCF. Baseline for last week came in at -29 (Draw), making a 34-draw 5 BCF to-the-bullish, .....and a 44-draw 15 BCF to-the-bullish. 

.....As discussed in previous posts, my own modeling has turned to a solution implying error in the EIA data, and is extrapolating .....an overweighting in producing-region salt-dome storage in order to mimick the weekly & monthly EIA reports. This causes .....a skewing between EIA storage modeling and the more realistic Capacity / Gas-Flow modeling. The EIA nailed the skew- .....inclusive modeling in the producing region the past few weeks (including last week). 

.....However, in last weeks EIA Thursday-release, there was a 12 BCF miss in the Eastern region, which opens the door for the .....possibility of a 12 BCF downward revision in the East this week, or a total draw-plus-prior-week-draw-addition of 46 BCF. .....We shall see if that happens. 



.....OIL: Will not have anything to comment on for a while as patterns that were being watched broke down and have yet to re-immerge. The .....raw data will continue to be posted on the chance that someone else (with better insight than I) may be able to see something in it. 

Natgas scheduling to refineries... 
...................................Scheduling.......Disruptions 
...................Day........... (MMCF)............(MMCF) 
...............10/20/12.(w)......416.......................0 
...............10/21/12.(w)......421.......................0 
...............10/22/12............421.......................0 
...............10/23/12............410.......................0 
...............10/24/12............415.......................0 
...............10/25/12............419.......................0 
...............10/26/12............419.......................0 

...............10/27/12.(w)......462.......................0 
...............10/28/12.(w)......447.......................0 
...............10/29/12............458.......................0 
...............10/30/12............490.......................0 
...............10/31/12............424.......................0 
...............11/01/12............416.......................0 
...............11/02/12............404.......................0 

...............11/03/12.(w)......419.......................0 
...............11/04/12.(w)......417.......................0 
...............11/05/12............413.......................0 
...............11/06/12............465.......................0 
...............11/07/12............400.......................0 
...............11/08/12............430.......................0 
...............11/09/12............433.......................0 

...............11/10/12.(w)......415.......................0 
...............11/11/12.(w)......452.......................0 
...............11/12/12............468.......................0 
...............11/13/12............467.......................0 
...............11/14/12............441.......................0 
...............11/15/12............424.......................0 
...............11/16/12............418.......................0 

...............11/17/12.(w)......395i......................0 
...............11/18/12.(w)......389i......................0 
...............11/19/12............394i......................0 
...............11/20/12............399i......................0 

...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday) 



.....ECONOMICS & POLITICS: Yestertdays comments are todays comments as nothing is changing as the Christmas- 
.....shopping season looks very steady. Perhaps something changes when the "official" (in peoples minds) Christmas 
.....shopping kicks off Friday, but looks like (now) everything is waiting on the fiscal-cliff talks (or dog-and-you-know-what show), 
.....depending on how sarcastic a mood one wakes up to. 

.....Internals still look hopeful underneith but we are (as usually) hanging on what emotions will be on whatever the media 
.....will serve us over the next 6 weeks on the fiscal-cliff. Will the media scold the Democrats (and kill the consumptive end 
.....of the US economy), scold the Republicans (and kill the industrial & investment side of the US economy), or find the silver 
.....lining of whatever agreement comes (even if it is bad). 

.....Back in the days of the cold war (and still today) the communist-side of the globe used media-control to feed the minds 
.....of its citizens, and one can see how that would somewhat work to balance off the failings of a society which is purely
.....consumer-oriented. Economics is a highly emotional animal. Scare anyone and they will react. Control what scares 
.....them and they will react the way you want. 

.....Not that communism offers anything in the way of hope for economic growth... but a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous, 
.....and a little bit of mind control is a hundred-fold more. The press is probably (in my own opinion) the number one player 
.....in economics, as it has the power to persuade (or disuade) the masses... from the truth to the opinion. 


Todays economic numbers... 

...............Weeklies.....Production........Consumption 
...............09/15/12.............121.3.................150.2 
...............09/22/12.............121.1.................149.7 
...............09/29/12.............121.6.................147.0 
...............10/06/12.............122.1.................142.7 
...............10/13/12.............122.3.................142.2 
...............10/20/12.............122.2.................144.4 
...............10/27/12.............121.3.................147.3 
...............11/03/12.............120.5.................151.7 
...............11/10/12.............118.9.................150.2r 
...............11/17/12.............118.3.................151.0 

.........................................---28 week avg---........---Daily (Raw)---......Daily 
................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n........Prod'n.....Cons'n......Food 
...............10/20/12.............122.2.......144.4..........1.943.......33.66......43870 
...............10/21/12.............122.0.......144.7..........1.939.......33.66......44563 
...............10/22/12.............122.0.......144.9..........1.942.......32.46......43850 
...............10/23/12.............121.8.......145.4..........1.952.......33.46......42202.........(Third Presidential Debate Night Before) 
...............10/24/12.............121.6.......145.6..........1.936.......33.06......42090 
...............10/25/12.............121.4.......146.2..........1.954.......34.14......44053 
...............10/26/12.............121.3.......146.7..........1.921.......35.34......44111 
...............10/27/12.............121.3.......147.3..........1.945.......36.44......43019 
...............10/28/12.............121.1.......147.9..........1.908.......36.44......42915 
...............10/29/12.............121.0.......148.6..........1.915.......36.24......42683.........(Hurricane Sandy strikes East Coast) 
...............10/30/12.............121.1.......148.8..........1.988.......31.80......33188 
...............10/31/12.............121.0.......149.6..........1.892.......37.63......37300 
...............11/01/12.............120.9.......150.0..........1.863.......35.51......40623 
...............11/02/12.............120.7.......150.7..........1.849.......36.51......39437 
...............11/03/12.............120.5.......151.7..........1.877.......39.01......40309 
...............11/04/12.............120.3.......152.6..........1.864.......39.01......41743 
...............11/05/12.............120.0.......152.0..........1.834.......29.01......39895 
...............11/06/12.............119.8.......151.4..........1.892.......29.01......39229 
...............11/07/12.............119.6.......151.0..........1.838.......28.21......39504.........(Presidential Election Day Before) 
...............11/08/12.............119.3.......150.5..........1.887.......28.21......39575 
...............11/09/12.............119.1.......149.9..........1.908.......28.21......39785 
...............11/10/12.............118.9.......150.2..........1.921.......36.61......40975 
...............11/11/12.............118.8.......150.3..........1.954.......34.91......40761 
...............11/12/12.............118.6.......150.4..........1.947.......34.91......39535 
...............11/13/12.............118.6.......149.8..........1.983.......32.49......40327 
...............11/14/12.............118.6.......150.0..........1.985.......35.40......39251 
...............11/15/12.............118.5.......150.4..........1.907.......35.40......41097 
...............11/16/12.............118.5.......150.8..........1.928i......35.40i......39977i 
...............11/17/12.............118.3.......151.0..........1.910i......35.80i......40017i 
...............11/18/12.............118.1.......150.9..........1.916i......35.80i......39878i 
...............11/19/12.............117.9i......150.9i..........1.902i......35.80i......38538i 
...............11/20/12................n/a...........n/a..............n/a........36.59i......37350i