few questions answered
(Re: Daily Gas Flows Comments)
1. How long has the proposed EIA modeling error been going on?...
That is the million-dollar question, as salt-dome certified storage
capacity has been rising rapidly and its over-weighting would bloat
EIA inventories more and more as months turn into years. The present
storage model (that I post) "experiments" weekly on the last 190 weeks
of EIA reports, and older models (that predate that 190 weeks) show
a lessened but equivalent salt-skew, so I am tempted to say 4-8
In looking at the capacity model, between 2/10/06 and 3/23/07,
capacity ramped 3456 to 3889, then began an annual oscillation
thereafter that would be consistent with salt-overweighting, so (if
the error truly exists and is what it looks to be) it could have
begun shortly before that 2/10/06 week. It would also explain how
we got that Christmas-week injection of 2005 and the summer-2006
withdrawals, which so shocked the markets at that time and never
since were repeated.
(Between 2/10/06 and 3/23/07 producing-region storage shrunk from
703 to 597 (106 BCF) while eastern-region storage declined from
1249 to 677 (572 BCF), and producing storage overtook eastern storage
eventually in March/April/May-2009 and March/April/May-2011... all
highly questionable in my mind right now.)
2. If their model is in error we may have not reached 3.9 Tcf in storage. If
so, where would you estimate actual storage is if you backed out their
Have not reversed the modeling, but (if an exact doublecount)
3601 BCF (Total) and 977 BCF (Producing) as of 11/09/12.
3. How many more weeks until you can be certain it is their model in error
and not yours?
"Certain" (mathematically) is hard to pin down (except for last
weeks single number). Everything is a weighing of probabilities
and likelyhoods. But as long as the Producing region hits the odds
get stronger of an EIA error.
Linepack is ruled out here (linepack is not counted in either EIA
or storage-capacity postings).
"Locking" into withdrawals or injections would play into this, as
injection-season-draws and withdrawal-season-injections get thrown
to salt-dome storage (where we are questioning overcounts).