Daily Gas Flows (Comments)

.....NATGAS: The EIA reported a 18 BCF withdrawal last week, 12 BCF short of my own EIA modeling, and 28 BCF short of .....Capacity / gas-flow modeling. Internally, the report was the EIA second lowest-quality report since it picked up the task of .....weekly reporting from the AGA. 

.....How bad was the report? Immaging going to church one day and puting $21 in the ollection plate, then a week later hearing .....that the Church took in a TOTAL of $18 that day. You know that... 1: Either everyone else didn't contribute or their contributions .....were lost, and... 2: three of your $21 disappeared. This is literally what happened, except that we are talking BCF's rather than .....dollars. 

.....Specifically, 45.9% of the nations stored gas reports publicly on the internet. You can count that. And if you did, you would have .....counted 21 BCF withdrawn. That would mean (if the EIA's 18 BCF was correct) that the other 54.1% of the EIA's data (that is .....not publicly reported) was an injection of 3 BCF. A near statistical impossibility as much of the non-public data (behind that 3 BCF .....injection) was in the core of the cold, such as NICOR (Chicago), MICHCON (Michigan), Detroit Edison "Washington 10" (Detroit), .....Northern natural gas (Upper midwest), CME Energy, etc. (All of which, though their exact storage is non-public, have either gas- 
.....flows or gas inflows reported... which pointed towards strong withdrawals). 

.....No hedging on this one... The EIA's 18 BCF was statistically impossible. And if they pump the rift between EIA and capacity modeling .....much more, there will come a point when the EIA's estimate of total storage becomes statistically impossible, and the EIA's data 
.....looses all mathamatical credibility. .....Another view, of that 45.9% of storage that reports publicly, the 18 BCF EIA withdrawal translated into a 21 BCF withdrawal to that .....45.9%, leaving them with 1,784 BCF still in the ground. Thus, each BCF of EIA gas translated (last week) into 1.1666x the EIA. If that .....1.1666x carried through the whole of their 1,784 BCF in the ground, they run bone-dry after the EIA accumulates 1529 BCF in ......withdrawals(1,784 / 1.1666 = 1529)... meaning at 2382 BCF (EIA) the publicly-reporting group (that 45.9% group) is empty! 

......For the week, I would mentally count it as a 28 BCF EIA miss... 12 BCF in the eastern region (one-time), and 16 BCF in the ......producing region. 


.....OIL: Will not have anything to comment on for a while as patterns that were being watched broke down and have yet to re-immerge. The .....raw data will continue to be posted on the chance that someone else (with better insight than I) may be able to see something in it. 

Natgas scheduling to refineries... 
...................................Scheduling.......Disruptions 
...................Day........... (MMCF)............(MMCF) 
...............10/13/12.(w)......371.......................0 
...............10/14/12.(w)......373.......................0 
...............10/15/12............385.......................0 
...............10/16/12............347.......................0 
...............10/17/12............367.......................0 
...............10/18/12............360.......................0 
...............10/19/12............387.......................0 

...............10/20/12.(w)......416.......................0 
...............10/21/12.(w)......421.......................0 
...............10/22/12............421.......................0 
...............10/23/12............410.......................0 
...............10/24/12............415.......................0 
...............10/25/12............419.......................0 
...............10/26/12............419.......................0 

...............10/27/12.(w)......462.......................0 
...............10/28/12.(w)......447.......................0 
...............10/29/12............458.......................0 
...............10/30/12............490.......................0 
...............10/31/12............424.......................0 
...............11/01/12............416.......................0 
...............11/02/12............404.......................0 

...............11/03/12.(w)......419.......................0 
...............11/04/12.(w)......417.......................0 
...............11/05/12............413.......................0 
...............11/06/12............465.......................0 
...............11/07/12............400.......................0 
...............11/08/12............430.......................0 
...............11/09/12............433.......................0 

...............11/10/12.(w)......415.......................0 
...............11/11/12.(w)......447.......................0 
...............11/12/12............464.......................0 
...............11/13/12............467i......................0 
...............11/14/12............441i......................0 
...............11/15/12............423i......................0 

...............(w) = weekend (Saturday/Sunday) 



.....ECONOMICS & POLITICS: Still looks hopeful underneith the numbers and in the latest runs both the industrial-production 
.....numbers and consumption numbers are trying to firm up. 

.....Biggest danger is a "scare-em-up" media which could undermine the economy on its so called "Fiscal Cliff" rant. (Actually 
.....liked - over the past 24 hours - what I saw/heard as some questioning seemed to show up in the media that I saw on the 
.....recent negativeness.) 

.....On the political side, I still think the Dem's And Rep's should wrap this up by December 1st. If a group of scientists discovered 
.....an asteroid heading to earth to impact on January 1st, you know darn well the politicians (or whoever) would not wait until 
.....December 31st to decide what to do. A decision would be made in days, if not hours. 

.....Same could be said here... if the "Fiscal-Cliff" nonsense waits until after Christmas, it is only because someone wants it to. 
.....If they wait to December 31st, in my opinion it crosses the border from foolish-irrisponsibility into treason. Get it done by 
.....December 1st people! 

Todays economic numbers... 

...............Weeklies.....Production........Consumption 
...............09/08/12.............121.5.................147.9 
...............09/15/12.............121.3.................150.2 
...............09/22/12.............121.1.................149.7 
...............09/29/12.............121.6.................147.0 
...............10/06/12.............122.1.................142.7 
...............10/13/12.............122.3.................142.2 
...............10/20/12.............122.2.................144.4 
...............10/27/12.............121.3.................147.3 
...............11/03/12.............120.5.................151.7 
...............11/10/12.............118.9.................150.3 

.........................................---28 week avg---........---Daily (Raw)---......Daily 
................Dailies..............Prod'n.....Cons'n........Prod'n.....Cons'n......Food 
...............10/15/12.............122.5.......142.4..........1.915.......35.00......43961 
...............10/16/12.............122.5.......142.8..........1.871.......38.05......44499 
...............10/17/12.............122.6.......143.4..........1.914.......33.92......44789.........(Second Presidential Debate Night Before) 
...............10/18/12.............122.5.......143.9..........1.890.......33.96......40175 
...............10/19/12.............122.3.......144.1..........1.908.......33.46......44387 
...............10/20/12.............122.2.......144.4..........1.943.......33.66......43870 
...............10/21/12.............122.0.......144.7..........1.939.......33.66......44563 
...............10/22/12.............122.0.......144.9..........1.942.......32.46......43850 
...............10/23/12.............121.8.......145.4..........1.952.......33.46......42202.........(Third Presidential Debate Night Before) 
...............10/24/12.............121.6.......145.6..........1.936.......33.06......42090 
...............10/25/12.............121.4.......146.2..........1.954.......34.14......44053 
...............10/26/12.............121.3.......146.7..........1.921.......35.34......44111 
...............10/27/12.............121.3.......147.3..........1.945.......36.44......43019 
...............10/28/12.............121.1.......147.9..........1.908.......36.44......42915 
...............10/29/12.............121.0.......148.6..........1.915.......36.24......42683.........(Hurricane Sandy strikes East Coast) 
...............10/30/12.............121.1.......148.8..........1.988.......31.80......33188 
...............10/31/12.............121.0.......149.6..........1.892.......37.63......37300 
...............11/01/12.............120.9.......150.0..........1.863.......35.51......40623 
...............11/02/12.............120.7.......150.7..........1.849.......36.51......39437 
...............11/03/12.............120.5.......151.7..........1.877.......39.01......40309 
...............11/04/12.............120.3.......152.6..........1.864.......39.01......41743 
...............11/05/12.............120.0.......152.0..........1.834.......29.01......39895 
...............11/06/12.............119.8.......151.4..........1.892.......29.01......39229 
...............11/07/12.............119.6.......151.0..........1.838.......28.21......39504.........(Presidential Election Day Before) 
...............11/08/12.............119.3.......150.5..........1.887.......28.21......39575 
...............11/09/12.............119.1.......149.9..........1.908.......28.21......39785 
...............11/10/12.............118.9.......150.2..........1.921.......36.61......40975 
...............11/11/12.............118.8.......150.3..........1.949.......34.91......40761 
...............11/12/12.............118.6i......150.4..........1.943.......34.91......39535i 
...............11/13/12.............118.6i......149.8..........1.981i......32.49i.....40327i 
...............11/14/12.............118.6i......150.0..........1.986i......35.40i.....40518i 
...............11/15/12................n/a...........n/a..............n/a........35.40i.....38442i