These guys all sound credible because they have nothing to lose - I get rtired listening to them as over the past 6 months they have been wrong 50% of the time, yet can't wait to give their next televised learned opinion. 

If its a normal winter and prices go up, they will just point to a reduced rig count, more coal to gas switching, increased nuclear plant outages, increased industrial demand etc. etc. that affected the supply-demand dynamics and offset that normal winter.  They never get cornered because there are so many outs to explain a wrong position........