"The warrants expire in 2015 and you have to pay an additional $2.60 to convert the warrant to a share. Do the math. I'm surprised anyone would consider buying them."
You have to pay an additional $2,60? Maybe you should do the math?
You can buy the warrants @0,02 (or very recently @0,015).
What happends, if the price of gold would become stronger, GCM would achieve the 200k Oz Au/ year and Marmato would deliver a positive PEA?
And it's not even necessary that the SP goes to 2,60. If it would go to $1, the warrants would begin to price in the CHANCE that they could become excercised. Now SP is almost 1000% percent away from that price and almost no one considers it realistic. Just read all the negative bashing here from you or fortun8.
But if the SP would reach $0,70, things would look already quite different.
@$1 things would look completely different, because this is such a volatile sector. 100% within 6 months is nothing spectacular.
If someone wants to play the idea that GCM can solve all the problems and begin to deliver consequently (which probably is the investment thesis of every long investor in GCM), then a repricing as a usual 100k Oz producer should take effect and the discount of a nearly bancrupt company should go away. With the further progress of the expansion @Segovia, a repricing as a 200k producer would take place at some time. Do $2,60 then still look that absurd as they look today?
Buying 100k warrants today costs only $2000. In the case of an exercise they would be worth $260.000.
Chance/risk: Price of Gold falling or rising? + Can management continue on their positive path? + will they not be bought out below
Therefore it think the warrants at these prices offer quite some risk of a 100% loss but an almost incredible leverage if someone believes these three factors will happen.