It is much easier to feel good about this investment when the stock is going up not down like it has this past week. But the "Value" in FPX holds true whether the SP is at $0.41, $1.00 or $10.00. Right now everyone is waiting on the PEA. Anyone that was intending to get their money in before the PEA has likely done so, everyone else is waiting on the Data. Kaiser essentially said on BNN today that the PEA will tell all. Neither management nor Kaiser has anything new to add to the story until PEA has been released.
There has been lots of speculative talk about FPX valuations but the best and most thorough assumptions have been made by Kaiser. Many of us and others have looked over these "assumptions" and nobody has come back and said they are anything but conservative. In his worst case scenario with Nickel prices below where they are today and a resource estimate that was roughly half of the updated Resource Estimate, Kaiser placed Decar alone at a Valuation of $1.50 - $2.00 per FPX share. Given todays higher Nickel Prices and the Upgraded Resource it easily places the per share Value of Decar alone in $4.00 range (if Kaiser's back of the Napkin Assumptions are correct) There is solid evidence that Wale will be as good or better of a target than Decar which is 100% owned by FPX and therefore could add significant upside to the Share price. With 95.7million shares outstanding and approx. 107 fully diluted based on Today's close of $0.41 the Market is Valuing FPX at roughly 41Mil
$1.50 = $143 Mil
$2.00 = $191mil
$4.00 = $382 mil
$8.00 = $764 mil
It would not be unrealistic with Positive Data and a Wale JV to see a Billion Dollar Valuation. The Potential here is tremendous if the data in the PEA backs it up. Using Kaisers numbers a Fair Value of the Company post PEA should probably be around $300 - $400 mil based on Decar after which Management has to prove Value on Wale which could add $0 or significantly more than double Decar with the right Partner. The PEA is the final Stamp of approval for all the back of the napkin calculations.