I am rather amazed that I have not yet seen published an analysis of the remarkably similar chart of the price of gold comparing the present chart from the past 24 months to the one from 2008-2009. In both instances, there was a peak followed by a downtrend during which the 50 or 60 day MA moved for 6 - 8 months below the 200 day MA and the latter actually trended down for a number of months as well. Then, the 50 or 60 day MA crossed back over the 200 day MA followed by another short term dip as the daily spot and futures prices slumped down to touch the 200 MA, which is where we stand, again, today.  Of course, in 2009, the spot and futures prices then bounced off the 200 MA and resumed their strong upturn that persisted into early 2011 and we can't tell if this is going to happen again, (or, can we?). You can superimpose the progress on the charts one on the other and they are uncannily similar, almost identical, except that the time for this pattern in 2008-09 was 18 months and presently it has taken 24 months for the pattern to reveal itself. Do you feel this might indicate that gold will once again bounce off the 200 day MA (presently approximately $1650) and resume its upswing, or would you be more cautious and await a definite market breakout to again confirm the secular bull in gold before making comments. I find the chart of gold comparing these time frames is just simply startling, and so must many, many others. WKH
8 Year Gold London Fix PM Daily with 60 and 200-day moving averages
gold Technical chart [Kitco Inc.]

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