As I noted in my earlier projection post, we all know that Q2 was going to be bad due to a premature failure in Coker 8-1.  The question though is how bad was it and how will it impact the remainder of the year.  The most pressing question is: “Will COS run out of money and have to make use of its credit facility?”
 
I have updated my estimates based on the final Q2 production and SCO prices.  I have retained the Q3 and Q4 projections so you can get of an idea of what we can expect.  Provided production meets or exceeds the April guidance, the quarterly analysis provides an estimate/indication of whether COS will need to tap into the credit facility.
 
Each quarter was run separately, based on COSs’ production projection and my estimates for SCO prices, which I think are more realistic.  In Q1, COS only sold 9.5 Mbbls of their 9.7 Mbbls of SCO production.  I added the extra 200,000 barrels to the Q2 sales.
 
Recently the dollar has been strengthening so the extra Canadian dollars for SCO has been shrinking.  The latest price for SCO is $109.85/bbl.  The rising $Cdn also affects the FX gain/loss on their US denominated debt.  I am estimating a gain of $40M for Q2.  This alone adds about 6¢ to the earnings and reduces cash flow by about 2¢ because earnings affect taxes and they are higher by $10M.
 
I looked at the projected production for the next three quarters in the April guidance.  Surprisingly, it jumps to 29 MMBBLS in Q4. I think that implies operating at 90% of 350 kb/d.  I have added a % production line to the info below.
 
As noted at the beginning, my big concern is the quarterly Cash Burn and Cash Balance, (The last line in the spreadsheet summary).  It is OK except for Q2 and I project that they will end up with around $150M in the bank by the end of the year.  It looks like they will not have to draw on their credit facility provided SCO prices and volumes go according to plan.
 
Namsoc
 

Projection for Q2 to Q4      
  Q2 Q3 Q4
Syncrude Production (bbls) 18,512,135 25,771,981 28,979,828
Production % on 350 kb/d 58.1% 80.0% 90.0%
Quarterly Sales (bbls) 7,001,340 9,468,600 10,647,160
COS Daily Sales (b/day) 76,938 102,920 115,730
Avge Revenue/barrel 112.26 104.26 99.26
       
Sales Revenue 785,968,332 987,196,236 1,056,837,102
       
Expenses      
   Operating Cost/bbl 54.08 45.38 42.92
   Total Operating Cost 503,225,172 575,320,361 610,217,811
   Crown Royalty 32,886,669 58,929,351 66,008,195
Total 536,111,841 634,249,712 676,226,006
Cost/barrel 76.57 66.98 63.51
       
Cash Flow From Ops ($) 249,856,491 352,946,524 380,611,096
Change in Non-Cash Wcap 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000
Cash From Operating Activities 259,856,491 362,946,524 390,611,096
Funds From Ops (Qtly $/shr) 0.52 0.73 0.79
       
Capex + Maintenance 210,500,000 210,500,000 210,500,000
Dividend 170,000,000 170,000,000 170,000,000
Additional Cash Expenditures 380,500,000 380,500,000 380,500,000
       
Cash in the Bank 292,039,473 171,395,964 153,842,488
Cash Burn -120,643,509 -17,553,476 10,111,096
Cash at end of Period 171,395,964 153,842,488 163,953,583
       
Earnings/share   ($/share) 0.34