oldtimer, Yes there is a premium when you make an offer, I was trying to extrapolate from the Connoco Philips deal few years ago. 

Now as for the analysts forecast I don't buy any of their logic, they go through numbers and all without exception don't recommend COS but love Suncor. The reason is that COS has no growth and they don't like the way it is run.

But as someone posted here COS is going nowhere in the next 50 years, it is just mining oil and wait for the price to double or triple from here sometime in the future meanwhile enjoy the current 7% div and might go to 10% in 2014-2015.