kade1 posts "... I am simply saying that the cost of producing oil from the oil sands needs to be significantly reduced if it is to survive as a Canadian source of oil, regardless of who you want to sell it to.....".
That may be true for those developers coming late to this party but not for COS. COS / Syncrude's biggest expenditures are well behind them. COS's production costs are running UNDER $40.00 per bbl according to Q3 reporting. COS has averaged a PREMIUM for it's SCO product which means it's more desirable with refiners which make another positive compared to others' production and that of any newbees.
Whatever flood of oil occurs from Bakken will only be temporary IF it happens at all. I don't see any oil pricing going much lower than mid $80.00's per bbl. The Big Boys of the Petrol Market have gotten the average US citizen use to paying $4.00usd per gal.RETAIL for gasoline. They'll do what they can to keep pricing up (like the diamond industry does) to no lower than $3.00usd per gal. So we will not see $60.00 a bbl crude let alone $50.00s. COS will make money regardless.
Can't say the same for the "Late Arrivals".