Current Oil Price @ $109+
Oil price heading to $110+ (we've seen $112.25 peak during the night).
For sure, sustained oil price (or increasing) is helping Connacher to improve their netbacks, especially with their reduced use of diluent (using 20-25% less light so far) and overall, they can obtain a better selling price for their heavy/bitumen.
With increasing oil price, more money will be made on the production that is not hedged (close to half of the production), and also more net on the hedged portion with improvement such as diluent reduction mentioned above.
Connacher has been beaten down - and is still over beaten at current price level, IMO. Everything is in place to achieve profitability/sustainability within a few months.