Worked in coal trading/forecasting for a long, long time. Base case never means invesment case. Stick to the low end and have surprises to the upside (the gravy tastes better thant way anyways).
My inner traders says CDU can put out as many resource numbers as it likes, it won't change the perception blanket that says "China slows means no steel, ergo, no met coal need."
Whether or not that is true is for the experts to debate, but for me it affects a trade of CDU...but resouce numbers do makes a case for investment, because trading and investing are two very different games