Subject heading is a quote from Yogi Berra, former catcher for the New York Yankees, and master of the comic-wise saying. It applies to the track record of James Faucette, which I decided to look up courtesy of a suggestion from Wavector. See this article from  12/12/12  for his prediction of Lumia sales for Q4, 2012: http://bgr.com/2012/12/12/nokia-lumia-sales-q4-2012-pac-crest/ 

If you read the original, you can easily subsitute in the word "BlackBerry" for "Nokia" and "Z10" for "Lumia" -- that's how closely the arguments run. Notice too that the circumstances are fairly similar, as the report came out just a couple of weeks before the end of Nokia's quarter, and that Nokia's CEO couldn't very well come out right at that time and specify the number of Lumias sold.

1. Faucette refers to the lofty numbers tossed around by people like Steve Ballmer and some analysts ( http://bgr.com/2012/12/10/windows-phone-sales-q4-2012/ ), that Lumia sales could hit 4.2 million in Q4. However, his "checks" revealed that several key countries hadn't even received their shipments, and that the volumes received were "still very small." 

2. Yes, "there is some initial pent-up demand that is resulting in stores selling out of initial shipments in a few days. Nevertheless, we believe this is largely to do with the low shipment volumes rather than surprisingly strong demand."

3. Faucette revises his estimate of sales down to 1 million shipped and only 500,000 actually sold.

Deja vu or what!?

 

Okay, so what happened next? On January 10, ten days after the quarter ended, and two weeks before the announcement of the official financials, CEO Stephen Elop delivered a surprise update, announcing that the company had achieved ``underlying profitability,`` and he named the precise number of phones his company had sold. Out of the 86.3 million total sales, 4.4 million were Lumias. So much for Faucette`s ``observations`` and ``checks.``

Elop`s comments led to a dollar rise in the stock price in the next 2 days, from something like $3.50 to $4.50. Unfortunately, the sp has fallen almost all the way back since then, as analysts realized that sales of 4.4m Lumias has only brought the company back to break even, even though it had received all that advertising support from Microsoft.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/lumia-smartphone-sales-boost-nokia-in-fourth-quarter/article7159844/

 

Last note: I guess a lot of us are wondering if Heins will ``pull an Elop`` and announce some real numbers before the late-March financials. To me, it would depend on when the first major American carrier launces the Z10. If it really is mid-March, then I`d say a pre-announcement of great numbers would be a great thing to do beforehand, as it would give the BlackBerry that full-intensity aura of success.

 

 

 

Another one that applies in this post is, "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded." T