You said """However, with stock market conditions I would suspect that a slightly sweetened bid of just $5 would be enough to get the remaining 50% approval from shareholders to sell to Alamos."""
I think its been a mistake to concentrate solely on the Cash of $4.65
lets take another look, but this time forget the 40% Premium mentioned if you take the C$4.65 Cash and consider the Shares I highlighted in yellow so it won't be overlooked;
I believe anyone, especially those who have been Shareholders before this Offer, and really liked ARZ for the Long-Term, would take the Shares instead of the Cash w/o even realizing its really gonna be over $5, above the 12 month High, by using AGI's 12 month High of 21 as the multiple and the Share Alternative of .2801 = $5.88
when AGI hits 20 your "Share Alternative" will be equal to getting $5.60
Alamos Announces 40% Premium Takeover Offer for Aurizon
Jan. 14, 2013) - Alamos Gold Inc. (TSX:AGI) ("Alamos" or the "Company") announced today that it has commenced an offer to acquire Aurizon Mines Ltd. ("Aurizon") for approximately C$780 million in cash and shares (the "Offer").
The Offer will remain open until 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on February 19, 2013 unless withdrawn or extended.
Alamos has also applied to list its common shares ("Alamos Shares") on the New York Stock Exchange (the "NYSE") under the symbol "AGI".
Under the terms of the Offer, Alamos proposes to acquire all of the outstanding common shares of Aurizon ("Aurizon Shares") for consideration value of C$4.65 per Aurizon Share. Each Aurizon shareholder can elect to receive consideration per Aurizon Share of either C$4.65 in cash (the "Cash Alternative") or 0.2801 of an Alamos Share (the "Share Alternative"), subject in each case to pro-ration based on a maximum cash consideration of C$305,000,000 and maximum number of Alamos Shares issued of 23,500,000.
The Offer reflects a premium of approximately 40% based on the closing price of C$3.33 for the Aurizon Shares on the TSX on January 9, 2013, and a premium of approximately 37% based on the volume-weighted average price of the Aurizon Shares on the TSX for the 20 trading days ended January 9, 2013
(over a 75% Premium is Double+ what you're looking at by only thinking Cash, and C$5.88 at AGI's 12 month High)
Have you DD'd AGI?, considered what an NYSE Listing adds, synergy gains when two companies combine...think of owning both ARZ & AGI and calculate 0.2801 X 20/21 for starters