Well consider this ... if the TO is successful with the present terms, the proforma company is projected to have about $230M cash and no debt to develop/explore their expanded project porfolio. Huh? Aurizon already has $200M in cash meaning Alamos is blowing nearly their entire cash wad to do the TO and essentially using Aurizon's own money to fund the bulk of the cash component of the bid. The math does not make any sense so the story they are saying is it is better use of Aurizon's $200M cash to fund development of higher quality project that Alamos brings to the table.
And according to their script if they indeed made three attempts for a friendly merger between 2008-2011, ignoring fall 2008 when everything crashed and unlikely to have started at that time, Aurizon's sp for these 3 periods: 2008: 3.75-5.50, 2009: $3.50-5.75, 2011: $4.75-7.50. If Aurizon already declined such merger deals when their sp was in the $4, $5, $6 range then obviously they will do so again to a $4.65 hostile bid.
You are right about a stink bid, and a reasonable deal that possibly might include friendly management support, would probably be a $6 bid. That would be sufficient in the present environment enlight of its current operational challenges too. However, with stock market conditions I would suspect that a slightly sweetened bid of just $5 would be enough to get the remaining 50% approval from shareholders to sell to Alamos. I do not believe there will emerge any other white knights that will come up with a superior bid because the company has gone nowhere in mergers and acquisitions for the past four years. I do believe that it could be possible for Aurizon to strike a friendly deal with another company in an equal of mergers in an all-share stock transaction, but that would be less to the benefit of shareholders and creating shareholder value than it is to the benefit of management and directors of Aurizon by keeping their jobs and positions.