Hi AP138, Thank you for your feedback. But, regarding your own words, those were what you wrote right and could not have been misleading? They relate to your rigorous analysis or arguments. I don't mean to criticize your comments, but they really pertain to what I would categorize as logical fallacies.
When you divide the $1.76 billion mkt.cap. by $4.23 boe, you are saying, implicitly or expressly, that the current mkt. cap. value amounts to AOI holding 416 MMbbl. What other interpretation is there, no?
When you make the case that AOI has 4.5% chance of success, mathematically that might be correct, but it made no logical sense. AOI will need to file an independent NI 51-101 report to publicize the proven reserves (P90), unproven reserves (P50) and possible reserves (P10). If you arrive at 417 MMbbl reserves, they fall under proven reserves (90% certainty). So, I don't know what it means by your statement that AOI has 4.5% chance of finding reserves. Although, 417 MMbbl is 4.5% of 9.29 BBL unrisked prospective resources.
BTW, on Canaccord's recent downgrade:
I also need no frigg' Canaccord analyst with an MBA degree to tell me about Discounting Cash Flow (DCF) analysis that pegs AOI value at $8.00 per share. The math. stinks as the Ngamia-1 reserves are nebulous and not yet proven & production, if any, not until 2022 in the out years. So, how did they arrive at over 100,000 boe per day when they did their DCF analysis? Also, whether or not, Twiga-S is included given that the moveable oil is trapped in a tight fractured rock formation & commerciality is suspect.