" Now if you divide that 417 million implied barrels by the Unrisked Net Best Estimate of Prospective Oil Resources of 9.29 billion barrels, it gives you a percentage of 4.5%. It tells you the market is saying that out of all of those 9.29 billion prospective barrels of oil, the market right now thinks that AOI will ultimately only be successful (Chance of Success) in finding 4.5% of that 9.29 billion barrel total, or 417 million barrels. I personally think AOI should be trading in the 7-9% range as of TODAY, but that's just my opinion. With more drilling success in the future, the success percentage HAS to rise."
I then divided AOI's basic market capitalization by $4.23/barrel. This $4.23/barrel is the number that the Heritage/Tullow precedent transaction was valued at and can be found in AOI's most recent presentation. The result of: (market capitalization / US$4.23) gives the implied number of barrels of oil the market is assuming AOI will find.
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?p=0&m=31979331&l=0&r=0&s=AOI&t=LIST#tJ1j3w8lMeA5S5UF.99
Is this logical or illogical??
(2) The market has implied oil valuation of $1.76 billion in AOI's stock cap. Tullow has imputed a value of $4.23/boe in ground for Heritage/Tullow discovery. Therefore, AOI has about 416 MMbbl in ground.
(1) The market has imputed 416 MMbbl of oil in AOI's stock. The prospective oil resources are 9.29 BBL. Therefore, chance of success is 4.5%.