The successes at Ngamia and Twiga validate only the Tertiary rift play and suggest considerable upside in a series of future drilling locations comprising the south and north "strings of pearls". Stock movement over this past year should attribute no value to Paipai yet, which will try to prove a trapping mechanism for oil in this part of the extension of the Cretaceous rift running SE from Sudan. Though both are in rift basins, they are two very different plays of different ages and geological character. Old wells in the area of Paipai showed oil had migrated through but they failed to confirm a trap. If Paipai works, it will indicate that the partners have figured out how to identify valid traps on seismic and will de-risk other nearby locations in that play. Although the chance factor is only 10%, if it fails I imagine we can still expect negative (unjustified) but temporary market reaction - release of further results (testing plus new wells) from the Tertiary play will shift the focus back to the string of pearls.