What's interesting to me are all of the sub-plots on the financing as opposed to what the actual price per share is when the financing is announced. In my opinion, the biggest question is: "What is the Lundin family going to do?"
The Lundins have the wealth to provide the entire financing if they wanted to do so. Obviously it is extremely unlikely that they'll do that, but will they take enough of it to maintain their pro-rata ownership percentage of AOI? Will they increase their percentage?
This has ramifications for any institutions who might be waiting on the financing to get shares. Depending of what the Lundins do, there could be fewer shares left over to divvy up than the institutions and brokerage firms currently think there will be!
So what happens then? Does the financing then get increased if the Lundins take a big chunk? Or will there be a number of institutions who get fewer shares than they wanted, or none at all, kind of like in an IPO scenario?
There are other questions to consider, too. Will the institutional shareholders that already currently own AOI increase their holdings on good Twiga news? Will some investors sell a portion of their holdings to lock in gains prior to year-end, as I'm sure some institutions who are currently on the sidelines are hoping will happen. Will there be a buying flurry in AOI prior to year-end for institutional portfolio window-dressing?
What brokerage firms will get to do the financing? This matters as well, because diffferent brokerages have different institutional investor client relationships. Depending on who gets the financing and what the Lundins do, there could be some institutional investors who end up getting PO'd that they have to buy in the open market if they want AOI shares.
Lots of things to think about to pass the time while we wait.